ANALYSIS - Qaeda seeks war, not refuge, in Yemen/Somalia

LONDON June 19 (Reuters) - Under pressure in his Pakistan enclaves, Osama bin Laden is facing a familiar quandary: Where to go next? The answer is unlikely to be Yemen or Somalia, despite their new prominence as regional al Qaeda sanctuaries.U.S. drone attacks and a looming Pakistan army offensive against one of al Qaeda's main allies in a northwestern tribal area have stirred speculation that bin Laden's men are seeking a less risky refuge for their anti-Western campaign.But simply leaving Pakistan's remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) could expose the world's most wanted man and his entourage of planners and bodyguards to satellite detection and the curious gaze of a local population of uncertain loyalty."The moment that al Qaeda has to leave the FATA, that is the end of al Qaeda as an organisation," said Thomas Hegghammer, a research fellow at Harvard University.Yemen was "a pretty good safe haven" for lower-level members of al Qaeda provided the group did not get too strong and did not bring in the leadership. The presence of senior figures would provoke a tough security response from the government and the United States, he said..more..http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSLI399159