June 20, 2009: Al Qaeda is on the run again, this time from Pakistan. Over 30 Predator missile attacks on al Qaeda leadership in the last ten months has killed key leaders and crippled the terrorist organization in Pakistan. There are also shortages of cash and growing hostility from local allies (the Taliban, and the Pushtun tribes in general.) Many of the fleeing al Qaeda members only recently fled from Iraq, or places like Syria and Saudi Arabia. The new safe havens are Somalia and Yemen. Both are a step down from Pakistan. Somalia is in the midst of a civil war between pro-Al Qaeda militias (like al Shabaab), and more moderate (religiously) groups. Yemen has long been a sanctuary for al Qaeda, but it is less reliable as a base. Whenever al Qaeda does anything in Yemen, or traced back to Yemen, the Yemeni government reacts violently. The government is sensitive about all the tribal and clan relationships that prevent the country from slipping into civil war once again, but the government also depends on the United States and Saudi Arabia for lots of support, and pays for that by stomping on overt terrorist behavior. Moreover, that tangle of tribal relationships the government fosters, also provides good intel on who is doing what and where. Al Qaeda has few other places to flee to. The Sahel (especially along the Algerian border) is a possibility, but this region, at the southern edge of the Saharan desert, is nearly as unpredictable and dangerous (for Islamic terrorists) as Somalia. Plus, you have to get past a lot of police before you reach this desert outback. Same deal with places like the southern Philippines, Chechnya, Malaysia, Gaza, southern Lebanon, Syria, Indonesia or Bosnia. The welcome mat is definitely not out for these guys. ..more..http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htterr/articles/20090620.aspx
Saturday, June 20, 2009
End Game
June 20, 2009: Al Qaeda is on the run again, this time from Pakistan. Over 30 Predator missile attacks on al Qaeda leadership in the last ten months has killed key leaders and crippled the terrorist organization in Pakistan. There are also shortages of cash and growing hostility from local allies (the Taliban, and the Pushtun tribes in general.) Many of the fleeing al Qaeda members only recently fled from Iraq, or places like Syria and Saudi Arabia. The new safe havens are Somalia and Yemen. Both are a step down from Pakistan. Somalia is in the midst of a civil war between pro-Al Qaeda militias (like al Shabaab), and more moderate (religiously) groups. Yemen has long been a sanctuary for al Qaeda, but it is less reliable as a base. Whenever al Qaeda does anything in Yemen, or traced back to Yemen, the Yemeni government reacts violently. The government is sensitive about all the tribal and clan relationships that prevent the country from slipping into civil war once again, but the government also depends on the United States and Saudi Arabia for lots of support, and pays for that by stomping on overt terrorist behavior. Moreover, that tangle of tribal relationships the government fosters, also provides good intel on who is doing what and where. Al Qaeda has few other places to flee to. The Sahel (especially along the Algerian border) is a possibility, but this region, at the southern edge of the Saharan desert, is nearly as unpredictable and dangerous (for Islamic terrorists) as Somalia. Plus, you have to get past a lot of police before you reach this desert outback. Same deal with places like the southern Philippines, Chechnya, Malaysia, Gaza, southern Lebanon, Syria, Indonesia or Bosnia. The welcome mat is definitely not out for these guys. ..more..http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htterr/articles/20090620.aspx
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