WASHINGTON (AFP) – The Obama administration is on guard against an Al-Qaeda buildup in Yemen and Somalia as it expects the militants to seek refuge there as Washington turns the screws on Afghanistan and Pakistan."The struggle against violent extremism will not be finished quickly, and it extends well beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan," President Barack Obama warned Tuesday as he unveiled his revamped strategy for central Asia."Where Al-Qaeda and its allies attempt to establish a foothold -- whether in Somalia or Yemen or elsewhere -- they must be confronted by growing pressure and strong partnerships."Obama did not say his Afghanistan troop surge and planned strategic partnership with Pakistan would cause Al-Qaeda to seek more secure hideouts in Yemen and Somalia, but his national security adviser did make the link."Our best information is that Al-Qaeda is feeling increasingly uncomfortable in Pakistan," General James Jones said Wednesday after Obama's speech.US media accounts say remotely piloted CIA drone strikes, with tacit Pakistani support, have taken a toll on Al-Qaeda in lawless northwest Pakistan, where the group's leadership found sanctuary after US forces drove them from Afghanistan in 2001."Our goal is to make sure that they're very uncomfortable in Pakistan and Afghanistan. And we have evidence that they're moving, at least in some part, to Yemen and Somalia," Jones told CNN."This organization will always seek the ungoverned spaces or the areas where they perceive they can operate under the radar."The top national security aide insisted there were not yet more Al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen and Somalia than in Afghanistan. He has previously indicated there are less than 100 Al-Qaeda fighters operating in Afghanistan."But it is something that is worrisome in the sense that if we are really successful, as we expect to be in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will ultimately want to go somewhere, and we need to track them," he added.Jones did not rule out using military action as the fighters seek to relocate.He said Washington will work with other governments, including Yemen and neighboring Saudi Arabia, to "make sure they understand what's happening."Michael Leiter, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, told lawmakers in September that Yemen could become a base for Al-Qaeda to train and plot anti-US attacks and that Somalia's Islamist Shebab movement had some worrisome links with Al-Qaeda operatives in east Africa."We are in the process of providing the TFG with 40 tons (36 tonnes) of weapons to use against al-Shebab and other militants," a senior State Department official told AFP, stressing the importance of supporting Somalia's Transitional Federal Government."The more the situation in Somalia deteriorates, the greater the likelihood Al-Qaeda will find a foothold.""That is why we have to do our best to support the TFG," the official said.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, hinted at US frustration with the Yemeni government."Al-Qaeda is also trying to gain a foothold (in Yemen), and the Yemenis face a serious challenge. We continue to urge the Yemenis to do more to counter the threat. They clearly need to do more, and we remain willing to help," he said. Analysts have painted an alarming picture of growing instability in Yemen as it grapples with a secessionist movement in the south, a Shiite rebellion in the north, a water shortage and a crippling economic crisis. Al-Qaeda, experts agree, often thrives in regions where central governments are weak or virtually absent. Given the pressure in Pakistan, it would not be surprising if layers of Al-Qaeda's leadership set up "toeholds" in places like Yemen and Somalia, according to Michael O'Hanlon, a national security analyst with The Brookings Institution.
Still, he noted that Al-Qaeda may not "come out on top" if it becomes enmeshed in power struggles within Yemen and Somalia as it may antagonize local players, much as it did in Iraq in recent years http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091206/pl_afp/usattacksafghanistansomaliayemen_20091206165815
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