War is Boring: Somali Forces Prepare Counter-Islamist Offensive

Forces belonging to the U.S.- and U.N.-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia have mobilized for a major offensive against Islamic militants who control much of southern and central Somalia. On Friday, a local journalist who spoke with World Politics Review reported seeing government forces, as well as peacekeepers from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), preparing for battle."In the last 24 hours, we have seen many convoys, including tanks from the AMISOM bases," reported the journalist, who requested anonymity to protect him from Islamist reprisal. "I can see the logistics [convoys] of AMISOM troops going through the city -- especially around their bases." He added that he also saw TFG troops deploying north of Mogadishu, in areas of the city dominated by al-Shabab, an Islamic group that in recent years has aligned itself with al-Qaida, particularly the terrorist network's Yemeni branch.In the last year, the 5,000-strong AMISOM contingent has assumed a more active role in Somalia's civil war. Ugandan tanks and mortars provide heavy firepower for the peacekeepers and the TFG. Exchanges of mortar and gunfire between al-Shabab and pro-government forces killed more than 250 Somali civilians in January, according to the U.N., making it the bloodiest month since August for the war-torn country. On Jan. 26, al-Shabab attacked an AMISOM hospital in Mogadishu, killing one peacekeeper and at least four civilians. Some reports indicated the attacker was a suicide bomber. Al-Shabab began adopting al-Qaida-style suicide tactics four years ago; such bombings are now common. A suicide attack on Mogadishu's Shamo Hotel in December killed scores of people attending a medical school

graduation. Several government ministers and reporters died in the blast. Another local journalist, Mohamed Omar Hussein, was at the scene and narrowly avoided injury.The preparations for major combat come just days after Kenyan Vice President Steven Musyoka made the rounds in Washington, warning of the growing threat from Somali Islamists. "As a result of what is going on in Afghanistan, some of these [Afghan] extremists are leaving for Somalia," Musyoka claimed during an interview at the New America Foundation, a Washington think tank. "Unless the rest of world looks at Somalia as a peace challenge, it may be too late." "This is a wake-up call," Musyoka said. Kenya has long struggled with the spillover of Somalia's 20-year civil war. Hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees live in Kenyan camps administered by the U.N. Somali pirates, who have thrived in their home country's political chaos, are reportedly buying up property in Mombasa, Kenya's major seaport. Kenya has reinforced its border with Somalia amid reports that al-Shabab was concentrating in the region, perhaps in order to defend against the TFG-AMISOM offensive. Kenyan troops and al-Shabab fighters traded gunfire two weeks ago. No casualties were reported.Uganda is similarly vexed by Somalia's chaos. In a bid to relieve pressure on the Ugandan government, Washington agreed in January to resettle to the U.S. around 6,000 Somali refugees living in Ugandan camps. The resettlement program will take until September, as the U.S. State Department must carefully screen refugees for ties to Islamic groups.The U.S. has ramped up its involvement in the Somali civil war, reflecting Washington's growing concern over Somalia's potential as a terror haven. In 2008, several dozen Somali-American youths living in Minnesota sneaked back into Somalia to join al-Shabab. Several died; others returned to the U.S. and were promptly snatched up by the FBI on charges of supporting a terrorist group. Trials are ongoing. In September, U.S. Special Forces killed al-Qaida operative Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan in a helicopter raid, but most U.S. involvement in the country is more subtle. U.S. Army Africa, based in Italy, oversees efforts to train up Ugandan and Burundian troops for AMISOM. The so-called "Africa Contingency Operations Training and Assistance" program is managed and funded by the Department of State. "ACOTA is designed to improve African ability to respond quickly to crises by providing selected militaries with the training and equipment required to execute humanitarian or peace-support operations," Maj. Gen. William Garrett, U.S. Army Africa commander, told World Politics Review. The Pentagon and State Department also underwrite the TFG's burgeoning security force. U.S. government funding accounted for much of the roughly $200 million that international donors pledged to the TFG in 2009. As recently as late 2007, U.S. contractors operated out of Mogadishu's international airport, managing logistics for AMISOM and, by extension, the TFG military.Somalia's Islamists have apparently made their own moves to counter the growing alliance against them. In late January, there were reports that fighters from Ras Kamboni, one of the smaller Islamic groups, had flocked to join al-Shabab. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweis, leader of Hizbul Islam -- the second-most-powerful Islamic group and at times a rival of Al Shabab -- reportedly opposed the union, as did Ras Kamboni chief Sheikh Ahmed Madobe. nternal schisms have plagued Somalia's Islamists. It's not uncommon for the groups to fight each other over territory and influence, a discord that could prove fatal in the face of escalating TFG and AMISOM attacks. David Axe is an independent correspondent, a World Politics Review contributing editor, and the author of "War Bots." He blogs at War is Boring. His WPR column, War is Boring, appears every Wednesday. Photo: A "technical" in Mogadishu at the time of the UNOSOM mission, 1992-1993 (CT Snow, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License).