Assuming that the claim of responsibility is accurate, last Sunday’s bomb attacks in Kampala have officially elevated the self-declared Al Qaeda franchise in Somalia, Al Shabaab, into a transnational threat, at least within the greater East African region.Unfortunately, the price to prove that Al Shabaab is now a force to reckon with on an international level is too high to bear: Some 74 innocent lives lost and about 100 people injured.
For two or three years now, international security analysts have been arguing over the ability of Al Shabaab to export its militant operations beyond Somalia’s borders. Well, the answer is clear now: Al Shabaab is capable of doing that!The attacks also send one message: Never take lightly any threat from Al Shabaab. Thus, all countries that have been warned before should stay guarded. In fact, on July 9, Al Shabaab threatened Uganda and Burundi but probably nobody took them seriously. On July 8, the Kenyan Foreign Affairs minister, Mr Moses Wetangula, complained that Somalia was becoming a safe haven for militants from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that East African countries are left vulnerable. Well, he was right!We all remember that last month, Kenya had a bomb blast in Nairobi that killed five people but nobody claimed responsibility. Additionally, Al Shabaab and another Somali militant group, Hizbul Islam, threatened to attack the World Cup tournament in South Africa, but thank God nothing happened.Regrettably, Uganda and Burundi were first warned on October 22, last year, and the Ugandan Government deployed elements from military intelligence, the Internal Security Organisation (ISO) and the Joint Anti-Terrorism Squad, across the country. In the end, no one stopped the attacks.Three countries currently remain under threat. Ethiopia, for removing the Islamic Court Union (ICU) from power in Mogadishu, Kenya, for denying Al Shaabab the haven of peace on the Kenyan-Somali border, and Burundi, for joining Uganda in forming the peacekeeping forces called the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).The United States is automatically under threat for known reasons. Firstly, the US is an enemy of any Al Qaeda-related group. Secondly, the US assists the Amisom, and thirdly, the US supported the Ethiopian invasion of Mogadishu that kicked out the ICU in December 2006.The Al Qaeda-style attacks of three bombs at two premises on the day Spain beat The Netherlands to claim the World Cup trophy on July 11, have added Kampala to the ranks of world cities hit by terrorist attacks. The list includes London, Madrid, Moscow, New York, and Washington, DC, Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, but name but a few. Within the East African Community, Kampala becomes the fourth major city to be hit by an international terrorist attack after the two simultaneous bombings of the US embassies in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi in 1998, and the Mombasa attacks on Israel interests in 2002. The Al Shabaab spokesman in Mogadishu, Ali Mohamud Rage, said on July 12, that the Kampala attacks were just the beginning of plans to take revenge on Amisom, and that Burundi could be next, sarcastically telling Burundians: “You are softer than Ugandans.”Sadly, no country has the ability to completely prevent terrorist attacks. Evidently, the world’s sole superpower, the US, with all its power, had to rely on sheer luck to avert the last two attempts, the 2009 Christmas Day underwear bomb aboard an American jetliner and the May attack in New York. Terrorism is not a joke!But what is the state of affairs in Somalia today? Is there any hope that someone can contain Al Shabaab? No hope, actually, the current President of the Somali Transitional Federal Government, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, is busy trying to save his skin while losing his country.The Amisom is not designed as an offensive force against Al Shabaab, but rather as defensive force to keep the militants at bay. That means as long as Al Shabaab militants don’t get close to the seaport, airport, and the presidential palace, none of them will ever be shot at. The Amisom strategy will never accomplish any mission. To be frank, since Al Shabaab is left free to recruit, train and attack at will. Although the Americans may occasionally hit suspected Al Qaeda elements in Somalia with drones, they will find it hard to expose their boys to slaughter.Minister Wetangula may have blamed the US for not doing “enough” but in reality this is our burden. Africans have to find their own solution that befits our interests. With Al Shabaab becoming a transnational threat, each country in the region must now reexamine its security strategies and tactics, and even foreign policy. Death is just around the corner and practically anyone from any threatened country can die.Hello, East Africans, the ball is in our court.
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