Dispatch: Al Shabaab's Increasing Power

Analyst Mark Schroeder examines al Shabaab’s takeover of Hizbul Islam preceding the announcement that more African Union peacekeepers will be sent to Somalia.
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Today in New York City the U.N. Security Council voted to increase the number of peacekeeping troops at the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) from 8,000 to 12,000. This coincides with the development yesterday in Somalia of the jihadist group al Shabaab absorbing its rival militant group Hizbul Islam.
The three main factions of jihadists, or Islamists, in Somalia: there is the dominant faction of al Shabaab that is globalist and jihadist in its aim led by an individual known as Godane Abu Zubayr. The second faction of al Shabaab is the nationalist wing of al Shabaab, led by a commander known as Muktar Robow, also known as Abu Mansur. Now this Hizbul Islam faction is led by an old-time warlord and Somali nationalist leader whose name is Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. Now the Godane wing of al Shabaab essentially issued a threat to Aweys’ group of Hizbul Islam basically saying “join us or die,” and after a series of clashes over the last couple of weeks, Aweys’ group basically conceded. Now this significance is less in the number of troops that the Awey’s faction of Hizbul Islam brings to al Shabaab, but the significance is rather of the Godane-led dominant faction of al Shabaab, eliminating internal dissents which ultimately would lead to its defeat if it festered. While these internal tensions are never going to be fully eliminated, Godane must fight these. He has no choice but to eliminate internal tensions that are on the radar of his enemies, such as the Somali government and its backers.
And so that brings us back to today’s vote in New York at the U.N. Security Council to approve an increase in peacekeepers from 8,000 to 12,000. It makes much more sense now. Al Shabaab was anticipating this increase. This increase is not a surprise, was not unknown, but al Shabaab is now positioned to ensure that their forces are unified and al Shabaab remains more or less a united fighting force to confront the Somali (TFG) government and the increased AMISOM peacekeepers backstopping it.