With the recent loss of two key transit points, al Qaida’s
Somali affiliate, for the first time in years, is facing what military
analysts say is the likely end of the group’s once-powerful rule over
much of Somalia
The future of al Shabab, as the al Qaida
affiliate is known, is still difficult to predict, but military analysts
say its hold on Kismayo, the port city through which its supplies move
and from which it derives much of its financing, is threatened and that
the fall of the other transit points has cut off key al Shabab supply
routes to its western and northern fronts.“The clock is
ticking," said a well-informed regional security consultant who’s long
tracked the battle against al Shabab and who asked that he not be
identified because of the sensitivity of the topic. "They cut off Shabab
from their supply routes. It’s a big deal for the organization as a
whole."
The most recent blow came Thursday, when Kenyan and
allied Somali forces captured the strategic crossroads of Afmadow, about
60 miles north of Kismayo. That followed the al Shabab defeat last week
at Afgooye, which fell to African Union troops from Ugandan and
Burundian pushing west from Somalia’s battered capital, Mogadishu.Al
Shabab once controlled nearly all of southern and central Somalia, but
that territory has dwindled steadily in the past year. African Union
forces pushed al Shabab out of Mogadishu last August, then Kenya
launched a surprise invasion from the west in October. Ethiopian troops
soon followed, pushing south across their own border with Somalia.Kenya has long indicated that its end objective is to push al Shabab
out of Kismayo, the southern port city that’s al Shabab’s most lucrative
and important possession. Military strategists say there’s no way to
take the city without first capturing Afmadow, a town of 50,000."It’s
a commercial hub for almost the entire region," said Abdiwahab Sheikh
Abdisamed, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi and a Somali analyst.
With it now under Kenyan control, al Shabab’s hold is crumbling, he
said."Basically, the
entire al Shabab-controlled area is under siege," Abdisamed said. "If
you combine all those forces, the days of al Shabab are numbered."When the end might arrive, however, is unclear. Multiple sources said
al Shabab had abandoned Afmadow without a fight and had set up a new
defensive position halfway on the road between Afmadow and Kismayo at a
place called Birta Dheer.Kenya has been bombarding Kismayo from
the sea, but a spokesman for a Somali militia that’s allied with Kenyan
forces said any ground assault would wait till Afmadow was secure and
it had become clearer how al Shabab planned to defend the city."We don’t have any plans of moving to Kismayo that fast," said Abdinasir
Serar, a spokesman for the Ras Kamboni movement, one of the Somali
militias that are fighting alongside Kenyan troops. "For now we will
settle in Afmadow."What happens if al Shabab loses Kismayo is
also unclear. Analysts foresee a dizzying array of competing interests
that include Somalia’s many clans and sub-clans, the politics of the
neighboring countries whose troops are now inside Somalia and the often
self-serving interests of the country’s political elite, now ensconced
in Mogadishu.Kenya,
Ethiopia, Uganda and Burundi all have their own national interests in
Somalia, and their own Somali allies. While Uganda and Burundi have been
protecting the internationally recognized but flimsy transitional
government in Mogadishu, Kenya has been training Somali troops and
building ties with Ras Kamboni, while Ethiopia has backed a local Sufi
militia that’s at odds with al Shabab’s ultra-conservative
interpretation of Islam.With steady military advances, each
foreign power is carving out its own regions of influence, and there
seems to be no coherent plan for how to unify all these regions under a
central government in Mogadishu should the threat from al Shabab fade.As for al Shabab itself, the group has proved quick to evolve in the
past, and it could return once again to a more traditional guerrilla
insurgency of shadowy rural movements and hit-and-run attacks.Al Shabab’s rise to power occurred during Ethiopia’s previous invasion
of the country. If Somalis once again find themselves under the thumb of
their foreign neighbors, al Shabab may be able to reinvent itself
again.
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