Troops from the
Amisom peacekeeping force in a camp for internally displaced people in
Mogadishu. Photograph: Clar Ni Chonghaile for the Guardian
Soldiers from the UN-backed Amisom force are edging towards the Islamist militants' stronghold of Kismayo
Colonel Kayanja Muhanga is describing his troops' latest victory
when suddenly there is a rattle of machine-gun fire somewhere beyond
the fortified base set among thorn trees and cacti.
"That's about three kilometres away," the Ugandan commander says. "Mop-up operations. We know where they are."
"They" are al-Shabaab, the Islamist militia allied with al-Qaida who are in retreat. Having surrendered the capital, Mogadishu, last August, they were recently pushed out of Afgoye, a town 30 miles away, by a force of African peacekeepers aided by Somali troops.
Ethiopian
forces have also driven them out of the southern city of Baidoa, and
Kenyan troops, now part of the Amisom peacekeeping force, are edging
towards their stronghold in the port of Kismayo. Amisom commanders,
Somali government officials, and residents of Mogadishu say al-Shabaab,
which means "the youth", is on its last legs. Its forces are scattered
and weak, deprived of income and losing fighters.
The sites of the ongoing struggle against the al-Shabaab militia
There are increasing reports of rebels switching sides – young men
such as Khalid, a 24-year-old who surrendered to Muhanga's forces and is
helping Amisom winkle out militants hiding among the population in
Afgoye. Khalid joined al-Shabaab four years ago. Speaking through a
translator at Muhanga's base just outside Afgoye, he said he left
because he saw the rebels were punishing civilians. "I found these
people were deceivers," he said, cracking his knuckles. During the
interview, his phone rang. Khalid said it was his former commander. He
put him on speakerphone and they talked for a long time. Afterwards, the
translator said the commander threatened to kill Khalid with his own
hands if he ever caught him.
Khalid seemed unconcerned. "The most
important thing is that [the militants] are not supported by the people …
Shabaab don't have any strategic points. They are in the bush," he
said. Increasing the pressure, the US last week offered rewards of up to
$7m (£4.5m) for information on seven al-Shabaab leaders, the first time
the militant group has been targeted by the Rewards for Justice
programme. Khalid said it might lead to some "useful information".
The 17,000-strong Amisom force has notched up gains where others have failed, such as the US and the United Nations
in the 1990s, and more recently Ethiopia, which invaded in 2006 but
left three years later having failed to defeat al-Shabaab. Amisom is
backed by the UN and funded by the international community. Its
commanders acknowledge that without this support, it could not function.
The troops are from Uganda, Burundi, Kenya
and soon Djibouti and Sierra Leone. Some Amisom officials believe this
has helped win support among Somalis, who are notoriously hostile to
foreign intervention. "This is a very unique partnership between the
United Nations and the African Union [AU]," said Augustine Mahiga, the
UN secretary-general's special representative to Somalia, in his Mogadishu office.
"What
the AU has been doing is peace enforcement. Mogadishu is free, Baidoa
is free. It doesn't mean it is the end of al-Shabaab but there are areas
of stability and in these areas, we need to keep the peace."
It
is certainly not the endgame just yet. In Baidoa last Thursday, one
person was killed in a grenade attack on the foreign exchange bureau.
The day before, a decapitated body was found nearby. Hundreds of
children have also reportedly been snatched by al-Shabaab.
The
deputy district commissioner Sandeere Mohamed Iftiim said children aged
14 and 15 had been taken from Baidoa but their families could not talk
about it while al-Shabaab were in the town. "If they talked about it,
they could be tortured or killed," he said, adding that he and other
government officials were trying to encourage rebels, and the children
forced to join them, to surrender.
Some of those calls are being
heeded. Another official in Baidoa said around 36 "defectors" had formed
a counter-terrorism unit. This group, the official said, had
facilitated the arrest of 110 al-Shabaab fighters, including 40 members
of the group's intelligence arm.
Many analysts say Amisom's next
big military challenge will be capturing Kismayo. But Brigadier-General
Paul Lokech, commander of the Ugandan contingent, said driving the
militants out of the Shabelle region around Mogadishu was even more
crucial. "If you liberate Mogadishu and Shabelle, that is where the bulk
of al-Shabaab is. That is their centre of gravity," he said.
Lieutenant
Colonel Paddy Ankunda, an Amisom spokesman, believes an estimated 250
foreign fighters – from Britain, America, Yemen, Pakistan and elsewhere –
in al-Shabaab's ranks will flee if and when Kismayo falls. There have
been some signs that militants are heading north, to the semi-autonomous
region of Puntland and beyond. There are also fears al-Shabaab could
seek to build stronger links with al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula in
Yemen. Al-Shabaab still carries out suicide bombings and other deadly attacks in Mogadishu.
There is no guarantee that further losses in Somalia would reduce the
threat from the militants in neighbouring countries such as Uganda,
where nearly 80 people were killed in an explosion while watching the
World Cup final in 2010, or in Kenya where al-Shabaab and its allies
have claimed several grenade attacks. The Islamist militants are not the
only threat to peace in Somalia, which is regularly described as one of
the world's most failed states: there are also freelance militias,
former warlords and unscrupulous politicians. Military officials stress
that they can only do so much. Somalia also needs a political solution
and there are few who believe the discredited members of the UN-backed transitional federal government
can or will deliver that. A new parliament and president are due to be
in place by 20 August. But there are reports of bribery and intimidation
of the traditional elders who are supposed to choose members of a
national constituent assembly, which will then pick the new parliament.
Then
there are the guns-for-hire and former warlords, who could re-emerge in
the vacuum left by al-Shabaab. There are already reports that freelance
militias are harassing displaced people in Mogadishu. Mogadishu's
mayor, Mohamud Ahmed Nur, believes Somalia is at the beginning of a new
era, one that is fraught with challenges, but not necessarily from
al-Shabaab. "This is the beginning of the end of al-Shabaab," he said.
"They lost experienced leaders and they lost weapons and manpower. And
at the same time, the Somali people turned against them." His concerns
centre on the fragile political process. "[Somalia] needs a very strong
government with vision. If we continue this way, we are …. I don't
know," he says, lifting his hands helplessly. Nur says al-Shabaab will
be gone in six months. And yet, in a poignant reminder that the group
could live on in some form even after a rout on the battlefield, he says
he knows he could be killed any day. "It says in the Qur'an, you don't
know where you will die or when you will die. So I will not worry about
death or al-Shabaab." via Guardian News
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