update on Plans for a new state between the Juba River and the Kenyan border
The headline across Somali media says: "Xiisad ka tagaan Magaalada Kismaayo, kaddib markii uu xalay halkaas gaaray Col. Barre Aadan Shire (Barre Hiiraale)" - which translates to: "Tensions high in Kismayo, after Colonel Barre Adan Shire (Barre Hirale) went there last night".
Most Ethiopians might not be aware but a new tribal war is about to re-erupt in Somalia (the south) and this one affects Ethiopia's own security directly more than ever
Two years ago, Kenya discovered large reserves of oil and gas on offshore area near these regions but a lot of this oil and gas are actually on the Somali side of the maritime border. Kenya wants to secure it and in such wants to set up a 'buffer zone' between her and the government in Mogadishu. It's policy makers came up with the idea of forming a myriad state inside southern Somalia called Azania but has since changed to Jubbaland, borrowing Somaliland's idea.
Are Kenyans seeking a buffer zone in Somalia?
As Kenya's troops continue their incursion into southern Somalia in pursuit of Islamist militants, the BBC's Will Ross considers the motives behind the deployment.
"I hope in three or four months, al-Shabab will have been removed from our region. Then one day I'll invite you to come to Kismayo to see what's going on," said Abdullahi Shafi, personal assistant to the governor of Somalia's Lower Juba region.
He is hopeful that with Kenyan military help, he can soon return home to a new semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia.
"We have been in hell for the last 20 years. We need a new Somalia," he said, wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with "Azania" - the name of the new region which comprises Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba. Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15499534
In 2011 Kenya was entertaining the idea of installing the former Somalia defense minister Mohamed Abdi Mohamed (Gandhi) as the region's president, who belongs to the Ogaden tribe.
But since its invasion, Kenya has been working with Sheikh Ahmed Madoobe, a former member of al Shabab who heads the so called Ras Kamboni Brigades militia. He now wants his Ogaden to elect him as the President and Gandhi has since disappeared.
These group is sympathetic and even aids ONLF and wants to eventually create a semi-autonomous region that not only houses and trains ONLF but also imports arms for them via Kismayo.
Ethiopia is closely following the development but it doesn't want to appear at odds with Kenya. Kenya does not care about ONLF and if they take over Southern Somalia as long as Kenya is guaranteed its oil and gas on the Somali border.
Below picture: ONLF member and former Al shabab member Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed Islam "Madoobe (black)" .
Ethiopia needs to support a third party that will eliminate ONLF and their sympathiers such as Madobe and Gandhi, who wants ONLF embedded into Somalia by taking over the southern regions with the help of Kenya.
Bare Adan Shire Hirale who belongs to the Marehan clan, one of the largest in Kismayo is opposed to the ONLF/al-Shabab group like the government in Mogadishu.
Hirale is an army colonel and the former Minister of Defense of the Somali Transitional Federal Government. He is one of the founding members of Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, the main religious opposition group to al shabab. He follows the moderate Sufi doctrine unlike Gandhi and Madobe who were members of Al Shabab and believe in extremism.
Ethiopia has to swiftly aid Hirale against the alliance of Al Shabab (Madobe) and ONLF (Gandhi) in which Kenya has no clue about. Bare and his Marehan clan are allied to south Somalia's dominant Hawiye clan. The current president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is Hawiye and does not want ONLF and al Shabab to derail his government and will need Ethiopia's support, who have been there for Somalia more than Kenya in the last 20 years of struggle.
Today Hirale is in Kismayo with more than 100 soldiers and the town is tense. A war can break out at anytime and the Mogadishu government as refused to recognize the Madobe/Gandhi and Kenya's agenda. Somalia government knows war is imminent in Jubba regions and it will need Ethiopia's assistance to flush out al Shabab and ONLF remnants. Ethiopia must be prepared.
It would be strategic for Ethiopia to pullout its troops from Bay, Bakol and Hiiraan regions and instead deploy them in the Jubba regions to reinforce Somali National Army before ONLF establishes itself. Once ONLF gets there, it will be difficult to defeat because its Somalia's wettest and most jungle area.
Bare Adan Shire Hirale who belongs to the Marehan clan, one of the largest in Kismayo is opposed to the ONLF/al-Shabab group like the government in Mogadishu.
Hirale is an army colonel and the former Minister of Defense of the Somali Transitional Federal Government. He is one of the founding members of Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, the main religious opposition group to al shabab. He follows the moderate Sufi doctrine unlike Gandhi and Madobe who were members of Al Shabab and believe in extremism.
Ethiopia has to swiftly aid Hirale against the alliance of Al Shabab (Madobe) and ONLF (Gandhi) in which Kenya has no clue about. Bare and his Marehan clan are allied to south Somalia's dominant Hawiye clan. The current president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is Hawiye and does not want ONLF and al Shabab to derail his government and will need Ethiopia's support, who have been there for Somalia more than Kenya in the last 20 years of struggle.
Today Hirale is in Kismayo with more than 100 soldiers and the town is tense. A war can break out at anytime and the Mogadishu government as refused to recognize the Madobe/Gandhi and Kenya's agenda. Somalia government knows war is imminent in Jubba regions and it will need Ethiopia's assistance to flush out al Shabab and ONLF remnants. Ethiopia must be prepared.
It would be strategic for Ethiopia to pullout its troops from Bay, Bakol and Hiiraan regions and instead deploy them in the Jubba regions to reinforce Somali National Army before ONLF establishes itself. Once ONLF gets there, it will be difficult to defeat because its Somalia's wettest and most jungle area.
Government will not recognize the outcome of Kismayo conference, says minister
Mogadishu (RBC) Somalia interior minister Abdikarin Hussein Guled has repeated government’s position against the ongoing Jubbaland “Kismayo” conference which the Federal Government of Somalia and local administration disagreed before.
“The Federal Government of Somalia has earlier made clear its position towards Kismayo conference and I am now replicating it, The government will not recognize the outcome of Kismayo conference.” interior minister Abdikarin Hussein Guled said on Friday during interview with state-run radio.
Word from a Somali diplomat:
Jubbaland has all the dangerous elements necessary to kick the stabilization plan like a sand castle. It has the armed militias, clan-lords and foreign intrusions of competing interests. And it is, by far, the most polarizing issue facing the nation today.
Jubaland Talks in Somalia Make Little Progress
Some background below
Sheikh Ahmed Madobe ex Hizbul Islam ,ex Al Shabaab
Somalia: The Show-Down in Jubbaland Begins
Justice and Reconciliation in Somalia is a Casualty due to Clan Morass
Somalia:A look back at What Has Gone Wrong in Jubbaland.-Goobaale Delegation: An Insult to People of Jubbaland
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