LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - An al Shabaab victory over Somali government troops in Mogadishu would lift the morale of Islamist militants everywhere and underline al Qaeda's ambition to create a regional safe haven in the Horn of Africa nation.But the repercussions on the ground might not be uniformly favourable to the group's fighters, who already control much of south and central Somalia and all but a few blocks of the capital.
Here are possible scenarios in the event of a takeover.
AN INITIAL PERIOD OF STABILITY?
Somalia's government has been unable to beat back al Shabaab militants who have made gains this year in guerrilla-style attacks on Somali troops and an African Union force there.
A decisive al Shabaab win could signal the demise of a new government formed this year and supported by most governments in the region and Western powers.
In Mogadishu, a victorious al Shabaab might seek to copy aspects of the behaviour of a predecessor Islamist force called the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which in 2006 captured the city and gave it a period of stability. The ICU won initial support by setting up clan-based sharia courts which provided security, education and basic services to residents who had suffered violence from warlords for years. Any similarities would probably end there. While the union sought to calm fears they were harbouring al Qaeda, al-Shabaab plays up its link to the transnational network. It has also drawn parallels between itself and the Taliban in Afghanistan and insurgencies in Algeria and Chechnya. It has said it will impose its version of strict sharia law, which in areas it controls has entailed beheadings, stonings, chopping off limbs and banning some TV programmes.
BRUTALITY: SOWING THE SEEDS OF EVENTUAL DOWNFALL?
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