Thursday, April 1, 2010

Kenya's Rising Risk Barometer: The Role of Somalia





somalia_crisisAl-Shabaab attacks Kenya territory http://bit.ly/aLlL0W

The Republic of Somalia, more commonly referred to as 'Somalia', is at the present time arguably the world’s number one failed state. A lack of effective government, almost complete breakdown in the rule of law, and volatile security situation has placed Somalia firmly in the ranks of countries in TravelSafe's 'extreme risk' category. In short, this translates into a recommendation that where possible travel to the country should be avoided. Among the risks taken into account in deriving this rating are threats of terrorism, banditry and kidnap for ransom.
Given these conditions, it is not surprising that ordinary Somalis are confronted with high levels of poverty, lack of basic state services, and multiple health hazards. Conditions in many parts of the country have taken on the proportions of a humanitarian crisis as the thinly deployed African Union peacekeeping force struggles to cope with the demands placed on it. Under the Obama administration the US has promised support for the transitional government of Somalia, whose mandate officially expires in 2011, but in reality the US and its Nato allies are unlikely to commit significant resources to Somalia while their attention remains focused on Afghanistan and Iraq.
From another perspective, however, the adage that one man's meat is another man's poison holds true in Somalia. For Al Qaeda and other militant groups, the prolonged political and humanitarian crisis in the country makes for ideal conditions. This has proven to be the case for the maritime pirates operating in the Indian Ocean waters off Somalia, for whom the sheer lawlessness of the country provides a safe haven from which to launch operations and hold hostages. Foreign warships may engage groups of pirates on the open seas; but under current conditions governments are far less likely to approve land operations to rescue hostages or dislodge the pirates. Similarly, Al Qaeda seems intent on exploiting conditions in Somalia to establish a foothold in a strategically advantageous region.
Al Qaeda's primary ally in Somalia is al-Shabaab, which currently controls Somalia's southern regions. Al-Shabaab itself is far from a unified organisation, representing more a coalition of clan leaders with a mixture of political, economic and ideological interests. Despite these potential fault lines within the movement, Al-Shabaab poses a formidable military threat to forces under the control of the Somali interim government. An intensive program aimed at bringing vital social and health services to areas under its control has also ensured that Al-Shabaab enjoys high levels of popular support – which in turn could provide al Qaeda with a useful pool of potential recruits.
somaliaThe exact links between Al-Shabaab and Al Qaeda remain somewhat diffuse, although Western intelligence agencies have been monitoring their growing relationship for some time. Although al-Shabaab does not appear to have much appetite for the global jihad advocated by Al Qaeda, the group has emphasised that the movements are ideologically symmetrical and that “the Horn of Africa jihad” is ultimately connected to the broader jihadist agenda put forward by Osama Bin Laden and his followers. This approach appeared to take shape in a January 2010 threat issued on Al-Shabaab's website to launch attacks against Kenya after the Kenyan government agreed to provide military training to Somali government forces. A spokesman for Al-Shabaab later denied that the movement had posted the threat at all, suggesting possibly that there was a difference of opinion within the organisation as to the wisdom of providing Kenya with a possible justification to pour troops into southern Somalia. Either way, there has been a significant build-up of Kenyan armed forces along the border with southern Somalia, as well as reports of Kenyan military aircraft flying over Al-Shabaab held towns. Apart from the fact that prolonged instability in its neighbour is unwelcome to Kenya's own security interests, there are commercial reasons too for Kenya's growing intervention in Somalia. Foremost among these is the fact that Kenyan businesses are having to foot the bill for additional security and insurance charges for shipping companies using the Horn of Africa route to transport consignments to and from Kenya.
Added to these concerns is the fact that Kenya has a sizeable Somali community which, according to well-placed Kenyan security sources, are showing increasing signs of support for the religious nationalism promoted by Al-Shabaab. This was demonstrated earlier this year, when Kenya's attempts to expel a radical Islamic cleric led to violent demonstrations in Eastleigh, a Nairobi suburb with a strong Somali population. As one high-level security source stated, “there appears to be more and more Al-Shabaab slogans and flags appearing in parts of Nairobi, so the threat of possible terrorist attacks by the leadership of Al-Shabaab is being taken very seriously”. Memories of the 1998 bombing of the US Embassy in Nairobi remain all too fresh in the Kenyan psyche.
All of this places the Kenyan authorities in something of a catch-22 position, according to one senior government official who does not wish to be named. On one hand, it may be tempting for the Kenyans to follow the route of Ethiopia, which launched a large-scale invasion of southern Somalia in 2006 to support the interim government against Islamic rebels, ostensibly to secure its own borders. On the other hand, the outcomes of the Ethiopian intervention remain hotly disputed and provide a sobering reality test for the Kenyan authorities. Like the Ethiopians, Kenya would certainly require the backing of the US and the African Union. Assuming that this is forthcoming, the country would still face the potential threat that direct and sustained action in Somalia could incite a wave of insurgent actions inside Kenya. Finally, there is at this stage little reason to assume that a Kenyan military move into Somalia would be any more successful than the Ethiopian intervention, which in the view of some observers actually ended up strengthening the position of Al-Shabaab.
Events in the coming weeks and months should determine the direction that Kenya takes. But either way, it is evident that Somalia will remain a long-term source of regional instability and, increasingly, a part of Al Qaeda's apparent strategy to decentralise its operations to counter Western military pressure in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan.
For companies operating in East Africa, these issues and potential developments have far more than academic significance. Apart from the escalating threat of terrorism, the risks of political violence, kidnap for political and financial motives, and a host of other operational risks are closely connected to what transpires in southern Somalia and Kenya's response to it. For now, the risk barometer is clearly on the rise

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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

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The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, the threat is real. They distort Islam. They kill man, woman and child; Christian and Hindu, Jew and Muslim. They seek to create a repressive caliphate. To defeat this enemy, we must understand who we are fighting against, and what we are fighting for.

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