Friday, May 24, 2013

Implications of the IGAD Report on Jubbaland

The IGAD fact-finding mission to Jubbaland has issued its report. Spins notwithstanding, there can be little doubt that the report supported the Federal Government’s position. It recognized that the Government should have led and still should lead the process of establishing regional states. It has recognized that the process’s inclusivity is contestable. It has called on the interim regional administration to enter into dialogue with Mogadishu. On the surface, it is a clear diplomatic victory to the Federal Government of Somalia. It should please all Somalis if neighbouring countries, who had been undermining the sovereignty of Somalia, are reversing their negative policies. But has the IGAD report altered the power equation and reality in Jubbaland or Somalia in any significant way? Does it change the status quo? Will the actions of the IGAD member countries – particularly Ethiopia and Kenya – be consistent with their political statements? These are an answered questions, which should be interrogated.

It is my opinion that the IGAD report:

1) Has put President Hassan on the spotlight by denying him the “foreign meddling” scarecrow. Whether calculated for this effect, or by default, the IGAD move shifted the political stage from Addis Ababa and Nairobi to Mogadishu and Kismaayo. Mogadishu will have to own up its failure henceforth.

2) Did not move the essential parameters of the political conflict between Mogadishu and Kismaayo that much. If the FGS calls for reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, and Sheikh Madoobe and Fartaag refuse to attend, they will be outlaws but as long as AMISOM and Kenyan forces do not move to fight Ras Kambooni militia, they will remain outlaws who rule their fief. They have already withdrawn to the castle of their clans, and that constituency will remain with them.

3) If the President asks foreign forces to attack Somalis who disagreed with him, it is a worrying reversal of his pronounced political belief. A President using foreigners to impose his will on a rebellious political constituency – not terrorits like Alshabab – in a fragile country, can lead to the break-up of the country. More so when the national healing agenda has not moved an inch forward. For him to be able mobilize international forces against Ras Kambooni and the interim Jubbaland adminstration, he will need to have the support of at least some sections of the D block, so that it is not seen as persecution against a clan.

4) Any potential reconciliation or reconstitution of the Jubbaland adminstration will have to include Ahmed Madoobe and Fartaag, and has little chance of succeeding without yielding ground to their core desires. In short, the President will negotiate with the same people he wanted to avoid, only after losing so much political capital by way of sulking clans.

5) Both sides need to show due care and compromise
a. The SFG must accept the formation of a federal state of Jubbaland and take its mandated role in the process.
b. Ahmed Madoobe and the current admin must accept and accommodate all the demands of the SFG regarding the formation of the federal state of Jubaland even if that means re-elections, widening the process, restructuring the current conference organisers.
c. The SFG mustn't have any decision making nor dictate matter but allow the people of Jubbaland and elders to own the process and have the final decision making.

In a nutshell, all parties will have to stick to the rules in the books as all eyes including that of IGAD and IC will be on everyone's actions in order to stay away from further conflict, blame and counter blame of both parties and reversal of the progress made against Alshabaab thus far.

In conclusion, there are no new beginnings. We are back to square one. Compromise and negotiation between Somalis is the solution.
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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

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