No to the tripartite plot: Hawiye Jehadest Islamist Government soon to come (Part I)

Editor’s note: Following is a two parts in-depth analysis of contemporary political development in Somalia, particularly the ever-bourgeoning and bifurcated Islamist movements in the Southern half of the country.  Mr. Buuh’s provocative piece suggests that there is a new marriage forming between the Wahabi TFG group and some of the most notorious warlords the nation has known.

No to the tripartite plot: Islamist Government soon to come (Part I)

Last month (March) was fraught with controversial but decisive events that have had the cumulative effect to pave the way for the total demise of the Wahabi TFG, as it stands, under Sheikh Sharif, and to strengthen and unify the Islamist insurgents in the near future. The tripartite group (Ethiopia, Kenya and America) has finalized the strategy of pushing the country  over the cliff – dragging the bleeding nation back to the disastrous warlord era of 2006 under the assumed name of Ahlu Sunna wal Jama. In their eyes there is no quantifiable difference between the Wahabi TFG and the Wahabi insurgents (of Harkatu Al Mujahidiin of Al Shabab and Hisbul – Islam) except the latter are revolutionary nationalists with no Ethiopian connection.

The courtesy visit of the TFG president to No. 10 Downing street which could have been helpful to the president stands to be another wasteful visit, the putting of Alshabab on the terrorist books in the West and hopefully in the Arab league too as per Banki Moon’s request, the signing of power-sharing agreement, initiated by Meles Zenawi, in Addis between Ahlu Sunna (cross worshiping army) and the TFG, the reinforcement of extra thousand troops to AMISOM contingent, the opening of southern front with Kenyan recruited troops under the command of officers who are accountable to Ethiopia and Kenya, the controversial report of the UN monitoring group on Somalia, the security council’s decision to throw out the shadowy maritime agreement between the TFG and Kenya, the pirates strangle hold on Mogadishu, the demolition of the abused tombs of the righteous clergy, the Puntland and TFG talks in Addis, the incursion of Ethiopian forces in Hiiaran, Gedo and Bakool regions, the on-and-off American involvement (Drones) in Somalia civil war, the return of the warlords through the person of Mr. Abdishakur (head of Ahlu Sunna national salvation army) are the new add-ons that March  has offered as consolation to the already mystified politics of the failed state.  As such,  this article would look into the ramifications of this unusual cluster of events will have on the stagnant  political spectrum of Somalia.

The Mogadishu Front: Multi contending factions in play

1. TFG Faction: Wahabist VS secularists

The commander in chief and the political commissar of the TFG paramilitary is no other then the president who time and again demonstrated  lack of the ability to grow into the shoes of proper state president – he acts and thinks as if he is still the figurehead of the rudimentary umbrella organisation of the now defunct Islamic Courts Union of 2006. The veneration and endorsement of military professionalism, chain of command, separation of duties, to lead by example, and the likes which are the make or break factors that are the basis to the building and subsequently running successful modern state army is sadly not in his dictionary as manifested by the UN sanctions Somalia Monitoring Group.

His contentment of overseeing corruption of colossal magnitude as exposed by the recent UN report - siphoning food aid away from the poor destitute people and the sale of visas by his government didn’t help him at all. The shadowy agreement ceding Somalia’s continental shelf to Kenya that was thrown out by the UN Security Council took away the last iota of patriotism and nationalism the TFG president would have otherwise waived in the faces of his countrymen. The so called moderate Islamist president and his ARS faction helped themselves in building up their bank accounts in Malaysia under pseudonyms and achieved to escalate the number of civilians in IDP camps in the vicinity of Mogadishu.    

The Sharif‘s Wahabi Islamist faction (ARS Djibouti) are the active members of the TFG that so far failed to clasp their non – Wahabi  TFG partners in to the decision making process let alone to entice the other stakeholders in to the fold of the TFG. The ARS members have no seasoned elite among their closed inner circle and are afraid to embrace the proper elite to help them glide through the tough time they found themselves in. Sharif Sakin (The illiterate and corrupt finance Minister) and the scandal prone self - decorated professor Ibi (the fishery Minister) who among his numerous blunders even impersonated the Prime Minister are but the few the president looks for political counsel – during his college days at the Faculty of Education at Lafole, Mr. Ibbi used to spy on fellow students for the Somali Socialist party.  It is widely assumed that the logic behind ARS’s shunning from all learned people is nothing more than a psychological trepidation that they may be sidelined or replaced in the near future as they are the weakest group in the TFG. This reminds me of the old adage of the bull with the long horns that chased away the rest of the flock from the shade of the tree and who instead of enjoying his spoils died in the sun guarding the tree – someone will fill the power vacuum and the Islamists seem to be at the forefront of the wanabe candidates.

In defence matters the ARS consult Sheikh warlord Yusuf Indha Cadde (the white eyed priest) who currently holds a sort of a defence portfolio. Warlord Indha Cadde has no known military qualification of the sort that enables him to command an army but rather qualified to switch allegiances at the drop of a hat – he can see from distance which side of the bread is buttered.  He is the same guy who invited Al Qaida to Somalia in December 2006 when he was the defence secretary of the then UIC. He is the same warlord who confiscated the lower Shebelle farms from the local peasants and converted them into poppy plantations during the warlord era. He is the only one who laundered his ill gotten wealth in the sacred city of Mecca - he bought tanker fleets that supply the pilgrims with the blessed ZamZam water – nothing stops him and most of the people who are familiar with his character are eagerly waiting to see where he would land on next. He is currently in charge of Habir Gidir clan Militia that are based in a narrow strip between KM4 to Hotel Taleeh, in the South of the city.  Very strong and credible rumours put Warlord Mohamed Dheere (Ex – Mogadishu Mayor) as Security Minister  in the forthcoming reshuffle of the TFG government and it is anticipated that this might mark the end of Warlord Yusuf Indha Cadde – the two love to hate each other.

Two months have elapsed since the TFG first announced its intention to over run the Islamists but to the astonishment of every one the Islamists not the TFG are on the offensive and gaining new grounds from the TFG at best or pinning them in their holes at worst. The Islamists to be on the offensive is no surprise at all because the TFG’s paramilitary which are a combination of untrained clan militias and unpaid trained clannish military personnel that have no discipline and who are left to self support themselves in any way in their capacity including but not limited to robbery, rape, sale of arms and ammunitions to the Islamists are no match to the insurgent’s quality foot soldiers. The Islamist fighters believe in Jihad Ideology which makes them a lethal weapon that can shred to pieces the narrow tribalism and mafia politics. Abu Mansur (Mukhtar Roobow) delivered a critical speech putting on the spotlight the shifting concept of Jihad. The speech is in response to the   conference held in Dubai and to a well known Sheikh in North America who was Abu Mansur’s mentor who drafted him into the Jihad – please listen to Mukhtar Roobow Speech 

The TFG is militarily and politically incapable to launch a successful war to retake Mogadishu as there are no clear strategies in place. Its mandate was to aim to achieve an all inclusive reconciliation talks among the varied stakeholders with the view of creating a conducive environment for multi party voting to take place but not start unwinnable and unending wars to please foreign masters whose goal is the continuation of the Somali blood letting. The TFG paramilitary are most of the time engaged in fighting among themselves over the sharing of the daily loot – extortion from mini bus drivers, transport truck and etc. The recent fighting between the police and the army over the removal of destitute people from Afasione (former Somali Air force Base in Mogadishu) in which scores died and  the police spokesperson along with other officers hospitalised shows the hapless state the TFG security forces are in. - the TFG militias often go without food for days due to their corrupt superiors and uncaring government.

2. Mafia group – Anarchist agenda

On the 18th of March, a plot to start all Hawiye war against Al-Shabab was aborted by the leader of Hizbul Islam. Elders and politicians financed by interest groups (anarchist mafia group) held secret meetings with Sheikh Aweys to convince him to declare a tribal war on Al–Shabab but the leader refused strongly to downgrade his Islamist movement into tribal one. The mafia group are engaged in a negative tribal propaganda against Al-Shabab  in which they are painting Al-Shabab as a Daarood army that are exacting revenge on the Hawiye clan in relation to the 1992 massacre of the Daarood civilians by the Hawiye USC.  This time, however, things are a bit more complex in that the leader of the Al-shabab forces is an Isaaq fellow, Mr. Godane,  and may not acquiesce to anti-Hawiye vendetta.

3. Ahlu Sunna – Mogadishu wing

There is also yet another group who are out there to recruit fighters from the pool of unemployed youth in Mogadishu to start a new bandit army said to be fighting under the expedient name of Ahlu – Sunna -Mogadishu wing. Their call for arms revolves around defending the grave yards of the reverend clerics from the Wahabi grave diggers (Al – Shabab).  Mr. Bashir Rage (2006 Anti terrorist warlord coalition) and Sheikh Samow are among the  men who are behind this movement and they were also behind the staged anti Al-Shabab demonstration held near Villa Somalia. Well placed sources confirmed that they are in the process of picking a leader for the Ahlu Sunna Mogadishu wing, if it at all it reaches a take- off stage.  Nonetheless, they lack a robust policy to appeal to the living masses other than fallaciously weeping over nonliving bones that the new generations were taught by the Wahabi Madras’s teachers to look down. The candidacy of Warlord Rage is ruled out because of his history of massacre and sale of the clergy to Ethiopia and the former US government but Surprisingly Sheikh  Abdiqadir Samow (most famous Muduloog tribe Sheikh) is  prepared to become a figurehead while Warlord Bashir Rage and his likes will be calling for the shots from behind the screen – an unholy alliance. Sheikh Abdiqadir Samow participated, four days after the orchestrated demonstration, a conference attended by the proper Ahlu Sunna Sheikhs held in Mogadishu in which they demanded the resignation of the TFG President, Prime Minister and the speaker of the parliament because of their failure to check the advances of the Islamists. Ahlu Sunna Mogadishu wing houses warlords, suufi sheikhs and is propagated mainly by the Mudulood clan of Hawiye.

Besides keeping pressure on the TFG forces, Harakat Al Shabaab  mujahidin, launched on the side a demolition campaign on the abused graves of the well known Sheikhs in Mogadishu as they have done in most of southern Somalia .  Soon after the grave exhumation squad finishes off a grave of a sheikh in a particular district; the residents of the district take revenge by pointing their fingers to the graves of others who are respected by the next door clan – they get sense of fulfilment by seeing even distribution of humiliation in the neighbourhood. Some genuine followers of the Suufi creed were caught several times  stealing the bones of their Sheikhs from Al – Shabab storage depot  with the view to lay to rest the bones and build shrines for them when the circumstances changes to their favour.

To stop the Sufis on their tracks the grave digger groups of Al – Shabab under the command of Sheikh Said Karatay came up with an idea that discouraged the true followers of the suffi creed from stealthily following around the grave flattening teams. They excavated bones from the Christian cemetery of Mogadishu and mixed them with the bones from the saints – the suffis’s hope of setting their hands on the bones was done for good because there is no way they can tell which bone belongs to the Christian monk. Eleven tombs were levelled to the ground and the commander of the brigade declared that the first phase is concluded today (03/04/10).  

4. The Mogadishu Pirates

The pirate presence in Mogadishu is gathering momentum and their involvement in the murky politics of Mogadishu can be a factor of concern because they are locals with tribal backing. They started hijacking Mogadishu bound ships and boats which has already enraged some quarters of the local politicians. The general manager of Mogadishu port Mr. Abdi Jinow Calasow (who used the port as his own property in the past) appealed to the TFG to empower the Somali Coast Guards to flush them out but it is understood that the TFG has neither the muscle nor the will power to tackle the water born problems. The pirates have deep pockets to finance their own war without resorting to outside help and will soon fall in line with the group they think their interest is best served – Islamists and the pirates are in the bad books of the west.

The opportunist American counter terrorism industries are mulling the idea of using Drones to support the over publicised TFG offensive to retake Mogadishu. The Drone/fixedwing/helicopter operations are not a new undertaking because they were in operation in the skies of Somalia since 2006 and are there only to hunt down few marked individuals. This news is more of physiological lip service to mislead the TFG but will have no meaningful contribution in Mogadishu warfare other then bombing innocent civilians as they do in Afghanistan and Gaza.