update on Plans for a new state between the Juba River and the Kenyan border
RasKaambooni clan militias
The headline across Somali media says: "Xiisad ka tagaan Magaalada Kismaayo, kaddib markii uu xalay halkaas gaaray Col. Barre Aadan Shire (Barre Hiiraale)" - which translates to: "Tensions high in Kismayo, after Colonel Barre Adan Shire (Barre Hirale) went there last night".
Are Kenyans seeking a buffer zone in Somalia?
As Kenya's troops continue their incursion into southern Somalia in pursuit of Islamist militants, the BBC's Will Ross considers the motives behind the deployment.
"I hope in three or four months, al-Shabab will have been removed from our region. Then one day I'll invite you to come to Kismayo to see what's going on," said Abdullahi Shafi, personal assistant to the governor of Somalia's Lower Juba region.
He is hopeful that with Kenyan military help, he can soon return home to a new semi-autonomous region in southern Somalia.
"We have been in hell for the last 20 years. We need a new Somalia," he said, wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with "Azania" - the name of the new region which comprises Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba. Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15499534
Bare Adan Shire Hirale who belongs to the Marehan clan, one of the largest in Kismayo is opposed to the ONLF/al-Shabab group like the government in Mogadishu.
Hirale is an army colonel and the former Minister of Defense of the Somali Transitional Federal Government. He is one of the founding members of Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, the main religious opposition group to al shabab. He follows the moderate Sufi doctrine unlike Gandhi and Madobe who were members of Al Shabab and believe in extremism.
Ethiopia has to swiftly aid Hirale against the alliance of Al Shabab (Madobe) and ONLF (Gandhi) in which Kenya has no clue about. Bare and his Marehan clan are allied to south Somalia's dominant Hawiye clan. The current president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is Hawiye and does not want ONLF and al Shabab to derail his government and will need Ethiopia's support, who have been there for Somalia more than Kenya in the last 20 years of struggle.
Today Hirale is in Kismayo with more than 100 soldiers and the town is tense. A war can break out at anytime and the Mogadishu government as refused to recognize the Madobe/Gandhi and Kenya's agenda. Somalia government knows war is imminent in Jubba regions and it will need Ethiopia's assistance to flush out al Shabab and ONLF remnants. Ethiopia must be prepared.
It would be strategic for Ethiopia to pullout its troops from Bay, Bakol and Hiiraan regions and instead deploy them in the Jubba regions to reinforce Somali National Army before ONLF establishes itself. Once ONLF gets there, it will be difficult to defeat because its Somalia's wettest and most jungle area.
Government will not recognize the outcome of Kismayo conference, says minister
Mogadishu (RBC) Somalia interior minister Abdikarin Hussein Guled has repeated government’s position against the ongoing Jubbaland “Kismayo” conference which the Federal Government of Somalia and local administration disagreed before.
“The Federal Government of Somalia has earlier made clear its position towards Kismayo conference and I am now replicating it, The government will not recognize the outcome of Kismayo conference.” interior minister Abdikarin Hussein Guled said on Friday during interview with state-run radio.
Word from a Somali diplomat:
Jubbaland has all the dangerous elements necessary to kick the stabilization plan like a sand castle. It has the armed militias, clan-lords and foreign intrusions of competing interests. And it is, by far, the most polarizing issue facing the nation today.
Jubaland Talks in Somalia Make Little Progress
Somalia: The Show-Down in Jubbaland Begins
Justice and Reconciliation in Somalia is a Casualty due to Clan Morass
Somalia:A look back at What Has Gone Wrong in Jubbaland.-Goobaale Delegation: An Insult to People of Jubbaland