Monday, June 20, 2011

Analysis: Somali power struggle could intensify as premier quits


NAIROBI, 20 June 2011 (IRIN) - The 19 June resignation of Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed could prompt an intensified power struggle within the country's transitional government and negatively affect the ongoing offensive against insurgents in the capital, Mogadishu, observers say.

Mohamed, better known as `Farmaajo’, told the press in Mogadishu he was stepping down "in the interest of the Somali people".

"Whatever gains the `Farmaajo’ cabinet made were offset by the bickering between the two Sharifs [President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and Speaker of Parliament Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden]," an observer in Mogadishu said. "Plainly speaking, he is a casualty of their power struggle [i.e. between speaker and president], but removing him is not going to solve the rift between them."

According to a Mogadishu-based analyst who preferred anonymity, the rift between President Sharif and his former ally, Speaker Aden, is complicating the work of government and "a new PM will face the same challenges as the last one. He will be a rubber stamp for the two [Ahmed and Aden]".

Mohamed's departure was part of a deal, signed on 9 June in Kampala, Uganda, between the president and the speaker, extending the mandates of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI) for a year until August 2012.

However, Mohamed's departure is unlikely to solve the rift within the leadership of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), analysts and observers say.

Mohamed was plucked from the USA in 2010 and was the fourth prime minister since the TFG was established in 2004. It had been hoped Mohamed would breathe new life into the TFG. Since his swearing in on 1 November 2010, he had significant success against Al-Shabab militants and won popular support for his efforts.

"The TFG faces a very uncertain future," Rashid Abdi, Horn of Africa analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG), told IRIN. "The TFG is weak, deeply fragmented, saddled with serious structural problems, lacks military muscle, has very little credibility."

Abdi said the TFG was part of the problem but could become part of the solution if it had good leaders: "As long as you have a group of self-serving leaders in charge of the TFG, it is unlikely we will see any progress."

The TFG is behind schedule in terms of achieving the transitional tasks it should complete by the time its mandate is over. These include a new constitution and elections in August 2012 when the TFG's mandate ends.

The TFG is also expected to conduct a national census; organize a national referendum to approve the new constitution; and set up administrations at the state, regional and district levels, among other functions.

“Bonanza” for Al-Shabab?

The infighting not only delays these tasks but, according to a civil society source in Mogadishu, is a "bonanza" for Al-Shabab.

"For the first time, the TFG was making progress against them [Al-Shabab]; the group was on a losing streak with little chance of recovering but this [infighting] has given them a new lease of life," the source said.

Other analysts said the TFG faces additional problems such as meddling and intervention by regional countries.

"The Kampala accord has many potentially fatal flaws to it, including the insertion of Uganda as the final arbiter of its implementation," said Laura Hammond, a senior lecturer in the department of Development Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London.

Uganda's increased oversight will be seen as a deepening of this unwanted intervention, she said, adding, "it is hard to see how Somalis will be able to find the political space to develop the kind of legitimate government that is needed with Uganda playing such a heavy-handed and paternalistic role."

Another Somali analyst expressed a similar view, adding that whenever Somalia’s cabinet is formed, often it is not representative of Somalis. "Unfortunately, each one of our leaders is tied to a foreign country. They [foreign countries] are patrons and give the orders. No matter how much we shout, it doesn't amount to much."

The ICG’s Abdi said Somalis were the primary authors of their own misery.

"International meddling is a reality, but we need to be cautious against heaping all the blame on foreigners," he said. "IGAD [the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa] - led by Kenya and Ethiopia - have vested interests and [are] unlikely to help stabilize Somalia in the longer term. AMISOM [the Africa Union Mission in Somalia] is increasingly getting sucked into the conflict, and Uganda is getting more deeply involved. There is also rivalry between these three regional powers.

Dysfunctional

Others see the all the TFIs as dysfunctional and in need of reform, with a parliament of 550 members and an executive that does not work.

"The extension envisaged in the Kampala Accord will do nothing to improve the TFIs," a Nairobi-based regional analyst who preferred anonymity, said. "What is needed is not extension but to reform, restructure or replace them [TFIs]".

The Mogadishu-based analyst agrees. "What we have is a bloated parliament, full of self-serving individuals, with little or no sympathy for the plight of ordinary Somalis."

He said without an overhaul of the parliament "Somalia will remain where it is and the TFG will in all probability die."

The ICG’s Abdi also sees a less stable TFG in the coming year but not a total collapse.

"Very doubtful we will see greater stability within the TFG in the coming one year," he said. "The most likely scenario is the breakup of the TFG into two factions each claiming legitimacy."



Hammond of SOAS also believes the TFG will survive this bout of infighting.

"They have recovered from crises as bad or worse than this, and I think that given the recent military advances and the killing of Fazul [Abdulla, alleged international terrorism mastermind recently gunned down in Mogadishu] mean that the international community will not abandon the TFG but will prop it up to be able to hold on to these successes."


Post a Comment

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

About Us

The Foundation is dedicated to networking like-minded Somalis opposed to the terrorist insurgency that is plaguing our beloved homeland and informing the international public at large about what is really happening throughout the Horn of Africa region.

Blog Archive

We Are Winning the War on Terrorism in Horn of Africa

The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, the threat is real. They distort Islam. They kill man, woman and child; Christian and Hindu, Jew and Muslim. They seek to create a repressive caliphate. To defeat this enemy, we must understand who we are fighting against, and what we are fighting for.

Terror Free Somalia Foundation