Friday, August 17, 2012

SOMALIA’s 2012 ELECTION & SECURITY PROCESS ASSESSMENTS

Terror Free Somalia Foundation Research( Editorial)

Somalia's upcoming permanent government is supposed to be a model for national reconciliation and good governance; largely made up of former militia members, intellectual Diasporas, and members of Puntland and Galmudug states. Instead, warlords and corrupt leaders have been quick to set aside their differences in favor of future power sharing, where the bitter pill of sovereignty is bypassed, and the result is mere legal fiction. Apparently, doing so helps them to strategize upcoming loot, on signing away the country’s future, in return for personal financial gain.


The new regime will be established as planned in August 2012, as part of a “fait accompli”, brokered by African states, invested by Washington, UK, Arab league, the international community and the militarily backed-up by AMISOM and IGAD peacekeeping mission. The preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections are proceeding on schedule, with voting expected to take place on 20th August 2012. The international community called this process “Somali owned to pull the country from the brink of ruins.” If such predicament fails, a trusteeship would entail a new enhanced form of international responsibility, where locals remain partners in any arrangements (multilateral joint venture); further, taking control of the main source of revenue, oil, etc.

Unfortunately, TFG has misused the time to make things worse, by preselecting and handpicking their Member of Parliament, through village chiefs and tribal prominent, to dictate the country’s future. Somalia’s corrupt leaders and politicians have found it easy to outmaneuver the UN and the international community in the conduct of what locals call business as usual. Despite claims that they are struggling for peace, democracy, and reconciliation, these leaders and their cohorts continue to use the country's institutions for personal profit.

The best option would be a radical intervention assigning a UN force, led by an elite career diplomat with strong military credentials, to disarm local fighters and the general population in Mogadishu at large prior to elections, build a working bureaucracy, monitor democratic elections, and establish a basis for lasting peace.

The conforming approach for helping Somalia's classical failed syndrome does not work without pre-disarmament and genuine reconciliation. Healing Somalia requires a comprehensive long-term strategy; not a quick fix. Obviously, a wrong prescription of political reform, with little thought of its cumulative consequences, was given to Somalia by the international community. In fact international actors should be involved for ten years or longer on Somalia's stability. A new approach will also require indigenous political institutions and frameworks that draw in all interested parties including Somaliland.

The output indicator predicts even if one of the few respectable candidates wins the presidential election in August 2012, there is little chance that he will be able to rectify matters. And if AMISOM and IGAD start to wind down their peacekeeping mission after the elections, as it currently plans, delegating some of its efforts to Somali police and army without appropriate administrational training, functional law courts, and police stations, the most likely outcome will be a resumption of politics-as-plunder and war. To have a chance of success, the election efforts and its smooth transition must take the city’s fragile security dynamics into account.

Mogadishu could currently be described as a war zone, because TFG cannot guarantee law and order throughout the city, its citizens are victims without suffrage, and there is no diverse council that monitors or assures the fair selection of new MPs and fair election in the parliament. Al-shabaab’s paranoid forces are integrated with the Somali National Army without counseling and rehabilitation based on Force commander General Abdulkarim Yusuf “Dhaga-badan”. They are the most feared who precisely execute covert missions and targeted assassinations under Somali National Army helmet. If unleashed by their non-ideological leaders (members of TFG), it can create another psychological havoc and destruction in Mogadishu.

Mogadishu’s cost of living has risen, such as commodity prices, real estate values, construction materials, hotel rates and other services. All these enriched changes, brought by Diasporas hoping for better future, are temporary. Despite all these changes Mogadishu became 35% IDP centers, where orphan kids receive one meal a day, sniff glue to stay away from hunger, and foreign aid is considered a fat cow. The new phenomena is a wave of supporters collected from IDP centers which are hired to rally behind every presidential contender without the intension of supporting the contender’s view of political change or ideology but just for that day’s fees and meal.

Somalia suffered through fighting for almost a generation, lacking honest competent leaders but also office administration professionals and bureaucrats. There are fewer handfuls of people who are educated or trained for effective government work. Somalia’s war today, often mistakenly understood as tribal, it is actually a regional war with internally competing politically vested interest group’s combating each other for support from neighboring governments. A healthier, more stable and secure Somalia would benefit everyone in the region and around the world.


Prof. Liban A Egal is a professor at George Mason University's Engineering Dept. Prof. Liban Serves as Senior Political and National Security Analyst Terror Free Somalia Foundation

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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

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