Thursday, November 4, 2010

Analysis: Tough job ahead for Somalia's new prime minister


A view of Mogadishu, 1 April 2010. Analysts say insecurity is a constant challenge for Somalia (file photo)
NAIROBI, 3 November 2010 (IRIN) - Somalia has a new prime minister - the fourth since 2004 - and leaders in Mogadishu hope he will breathe new life into the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), but just what can Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (also known as Farmajo) do to quickly turn round a country that has been in turmoil for almost two decades?

Plucked from the US and finally sworn in on 1 November after a struggle to obtain parliamentary endorsement, Mohamed was nominated by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to replace Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, who resigned on 21 September.

"I will soon form a government that will make security its priority ... and [complete] the transitional tasks outlined in the charter," he said. But observers and analysts say he faces huge immediate challenges:

Dealing with Al-Shabab

Mohamed begins his term as the TFG is fighting Islamist insurgents, mainly Al-Shabab, which controls much of south and central Somalia and most of the capital, Mogadishu.

"There must be a sufficient proportion of political actors within each of the factions [domestic and external] to give Mohamed and his team a chance and to cooperate with him," said Michael Weinstein, an expert on Somalia and professor at Purdue University in the US.

A Somali political analyst, who requested anonymity, added: "The number-one challenge is how he can get the international community to unshackle him from the publicly undeclared parameters that he will be boxed into, such as that he cannot negotiate with Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islam."

To work effectively, the new PM will need space and independence to negotiate with the opposition. "If he fails to convince the international community to give him a free hand, he will leave office with things getting worse and not better," the analyst said. "The military solution is not working and will not work even if they bring in the 20,000 extra troops they are talking about."

Divisions within the TFG

According to the Somali analyst: "The infighting between President Sharif and his erstwhile partner, Speaker Sharif Hassan, could make it impossible for the PM to function effectively and most of his time will be spent trying to ward off the speaker. The reason many Somalis have no faith in the TFG is largely due to endless infighting and lack of cohesion."

Weinstein said: "Mohamed faces one overriding challenge in governance that he must surmount before he can tackle any other challenges - he must establish his credibility to govern and must overcome divisions within the TFG, its institutions and factions.

"The fact that Mohamed won a vote of confidence does not mean that the power struggle is over," he said. "Without experience and a support base, he must show great political skill to get to a position in which he is able to face challenges at all. At best, he is a long shot."

Insecurity and corruption

Roba Sharamo, head of the Africa Conflict Prevention Programme at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Nairobi, said: "Security - insecurity - is a constant challenge for Somalia; without security, no transitional authority could succeed... the PM needs to deal with this incessant challenge and ensure that the TFG does not lose more ground to Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islam


''Mohamed has to keep donor powers at bay while connecting with factions within the armed opposition''
The PM, he added, needed to reach out to Al-Shabab and Hisbul Islam and other armed Islamists opposed to the government.

A civil society source in Mogadishu said that while ending insecurity was key, tackling corruption, widespread within the TFG, was most important. "They don’t get much money but what the government [does get] is misappropriated by senior government officials," the source said. "Mohamed must redirect resources to the right places, like paying the security forces their salaries.

"We have had cases where government troops were not being provided with basic necessities like food, water and ammunition. How is someone like that going to fight?" he asked. "Even the infighting and the lack of progress in the security sector have something to do with it. Senior officials are fighting over who will control the money. It really is that simple."

Weinstein called for dialogue: "Mohamed has to keep donor powers at bay while connecting with factions within the armed opposition. This is very difficult to execute and might be impossible; but if he fails to do this, his administration will founder like others before him.

"He must position himself quickly as a unifying figure who can gain popular support that is sufficiently strong to overcome the present hyper-divisive drift of Somali politics, not only in southern and central regions, but increasingly in the north."

ah/eo/mw

No comments:

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

About Us

The Foundation is dedicated to networking like-minded Somalis opposed to the terrorist insurgency that is plaguing our beloved homeland and informing the international public at large about what is really happening throughout the Horn of Africa region.

Blog Archive

We Are Winning the War on Terrorism in Horn of Africa

The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, the threat is real. They distort Islam. They kill man, woman and child; Christian and Hindu, Jew and Muslim. They seek to create a repressive caliphate. To defeat this enemy, we must understand who we are fighting against, and what we are fighting for.

Terror Free Somalia Foundation