Saturday, June 4, 2011

The Next Battle In Mogadishu - June 12 The Consultative Meeting Will Shape Somali's Future..Or Not

The next battle in Mogadishu will be one of words and backroom deals. Between June 12 and June 16th, sponsors, politicians and power brokers will all convene in sunny Mogadishu to decide what lies ahead after the TFI's four year greement expires in August. Predictably the rapidly looming meeting has not set an agenda, attendees, forum, moderator or even agenda. So in that spirit terror free somalia provides a slightly humorous guide to the players:

AMISOM: Created in 2007 to babysit the embattled TFG on 6 month lease. It is essentially a cash cow for Uganda and partly Burundi. Ugandan soldiers have proven their worth in the grim conditions and thankless advances. But this is often mistaken as a political tool rather than the arms and legs for U.S. provided firepower. Trivia note. The AU was created and funded by "Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution", Moamar Gaddafi and is based now based in Ethiopia.
al Shabaab: The low-rent narcissist jihad run by photo preening terrorists. You won't find many Somalis who will bet their money or future on "the boys" but they do run a mean press conference. And although they aren't invited they are the worst case option that drives the less worst case scenario of this meeting.
ASWJ: The acceptable, Ethiopian backed, Sufi moderates, Ahlu Sunnah Waljama (note how many times that word is used in front of "Militia") alternative to al Shabaab. Although they are already technically married to the TFG, nobody noticed or remembered. They are already pouting and squabbling about which breakaway faction will or wont' attend. And nobody will be listening to them anyways. Monty Python would be proud.
Breakaway Regions: One-Clan secessionist Enclave Somaliland went first, then Puntland, then Galmudug, Jubbaland, Azania, SSC and perhaps even Mogadishu aka Villa Somalia and whatever other bits fall off during the future. The clan structures, low rent Machiavellian politics, massive refugee camps, diaspora and proxy forces create a very different map than the one the world sees. In other words the 1991 era "Somalia" they are talking about fixing no longer exists.
Diaspora: That phantom network that keeps much of Somalia afloat.
Djibouti: Technically should be part of a great Somalia with its port and stable strong man government.
Djibouti Agreement: The governing document hammered out in the plush $400 a night Kempinski Hotel in Djibouti between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia and the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) from 31 May to 9 June 2008 in Djibouti. This ended the fighting after the Ethiopian invasion and launched more fighting as al Shabaab took up the banner of jihad against interlopers.
Elections: The thing that is supposed to create a democratic government in the next few months without a constitution, functional cash flow or clear view of the future. Most political parties are either militias turn political parties or proxie fronts for outside players.
Eritrea: The spoiler in much of this. Backs Shabaab just to stick it to Ethiopia. Hated by all.
Ethiopia: The 800lb gorilla in the room. Whoever runs Somalia will need to make sure they listen carefully to their bellicose neighbor or listen more carefully to the sounds of Ethiopian tanks outside their window.
IGAD: A regional non power seven country, East African bloc build to ease famine that provides some legitimate cause to interfere in each others political backyards.
Kenya: The country that is affected most by Somali's of all dispositions using Nairobi and Mombassa as planning, R&R and funding sources

Mandate: The thing that other countries give a small group of squabbling self interested Somali's so they can argue over who is not running the non-country. Lest it be forgotten, back in 2009, the TFG was asked nicely to create a constitution and organize presidential and parliamentary general elections by August 2011.
Mogadishu: The embattled colonial town that the outside world views as Somalia.
Puntland: Proof that the "worst case scenario" of western nations bailing on the TFG and creating a federal system might just be the "best" case

One-Clan secessionist Enclave Somaliland: That embarrassing stable chunk of land next to a stable Djibouti next to an almost stable Puntland that proves that the international view of a central run "Somalia" is no more.

Transitional Federal Charter: A five year program to create the basic building blocks of a civil society created in the spring of 2004 in Djibouti. None of these "TFI"s have achieved the goal of the charter but they do seem to have a lot of meetings. The TNG morphed into the TFG on November 2004.

UAE: The quiet player who provides significant funds to their strategic partner. This progressive but taciturn nation fully understands the impact of suicide bombers in their luxury hotels.United Nations: The tired, overpaid, caretaker of Somalia. Fatigued by two decades of unending failure and cyclical chaos. NGOs: Same nightmare, different day. The glue that holds most of the badly functioning medical, health and emergency programs together. They have no influence at this meeting and expect to be underfunded, overworked and under attack. Oil: The stuff that is under Puntland and offshore and might change the whole balance Parliament: The 392 politicians (well not the number who actually show up to vote) to squabble about things that don't get done. Senior hand picked Somalis who can't even agree on what time it is except to almost unanimously vote to stay on the payroll for another three years. Plan A: Maintain the status quo for another year to allow  Somali TFG and Ethiopian proxies and political footballers to capitalize on recent military gains. Promoted by the President who Plan B: Dissolve the government and hold elections in a fractured dysfunctional pseudo country and which Speaker Hassan figures he has locked up.Plan C: What will probably happen due to the reactive, opportunistic, dissonant nature of Somali politics. AKA If its not broke, break it. and blame someone else. President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed: Creator of Plan A. The Libyan educated, taliban'ish islamic firebrand turned lame duck leader. He warms a seat strictly as a concession to the islamists. Didn't work.
Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo: The man who may end up with all the cards as he keeps a quiet business like profile and works the halls of Washington and the Middle East. Somalia: An ancient land populated by nomadic tribes whose area was chopped up by incompetent colonial European administrators resulting in decades of conflict (see Afghanistan, Pakistan, Middle East etc) Never fully framed but fought over on the micro level daily. A place where people actually sent postcards from while on holiday. Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adam: Troublemaker who has political savvy and is a predictable and productive as a ricocheting AMISOM bullet. The only thing he has in common with President Ahmed is Jowhar and their hatred for Ethiopia.
Uganda: Although President Yoweri Museveni does suffer from islamic insurgents his main interest is to keep renting battle hardened soldiers to allow Somalia legislators to squabble. His troops might be doing their job too well since the last thing the TFG was prepared for was an actual controlled area in Mogadishu large enough to really govern.
United States of America: Although is still suffers from Blackhawk Down Syndrome, there are white faces on the ground in Somaliland, Puntland and Mogadishu. They provide most of the money that keeps the AMISOM guns booming and the TFG squabbling. The U.S. is really only interested in terrorists and to a certain degree free flow of that black gold through the Gulf of Aden. Other than that, the State Department's view of Somalia's future is Kevorkian.
terror free has its money on the June 12 conference generating a lot of public posturing, perhaps a little public spanking leading to lots of sobbing and hand wringing by the warring parties but ultimately a grumpy call for a "do ove"r for the current TFI leadership to stay in power for another year.
"Functioning codependency" is rumored to be the secret codeword for entry into the conference. 
Post a Comment

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

About Us

The Foundation is dedicated to networking like-minded Somalis opposed to the terrorist insurgency that is plaguing our beloved homeland and informing the international public at large about what is really happening throughout the Horn of Africa region.

Blog Archive

We Are Winning the War on Terrorism in Horn of Africa

The threat is from violent extremists who are a small minority of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims, the threat is real. They distort Islam. They kill man, woman and child; Christian and Hindu, Jew and Muslim. They seek to create a repressive caliphate. To defeat this enemy, we must understand who we are fighting against, and what we are fighting for.

Terror Free Somalia Foundation