The strategy takes a page from U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, where strengthening a weak government has been seen as pivotal in the U.S.-led wars against Islamic militants.
"We have our troops trained and equipped now, so they are ready to clear the rebels out of the country," said Somali Security Minister Abdullahi Mohamed Ali.After nearly two decades of war, the current government barely exists in the tiny pocket of the capital it controls. Members of an underpaid Somali force have been known to defect or sell weapons to militants.Ahead of the offensive, Mogadishu residents have packed into cars and buses by the thousands to flee to makeshift camps outside the city. In the past two weeks, an estimated 15,000 people have been displaced from Mogadishu, according to the United Nations, and some 85,000 have been displaced across the country since January 1.A recent statement from the office of the UN's humanitarian coordinator, Mark Bowden, said the high figures suggest that "all parties"—which would include government and African Union troops—are involved in "indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force against civilians."The government has attributed such allegations to insurgent propaganda. Gaffel Nkolokosa, a spokesman for the African Union mission in Somalia, denied any such actions by African Union troops.Mogadishu resident Abdiyo Hussein was preparing to leave the city for the sixth time since 2007, to take refuge in a camp. "I'm no longer hopeful of the government or the rebels," she said. "The rebels execute people meaninglessly, and the government shells civilians. So we are hopeless."An estimated 3.2 million people, more than 40% of the population, need emergency humanitarian assistance, according to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, an international project in Somalia.The crisis has deepened as the U.S. and the U.K., the largest donors of food assistance, gave less than half of their planned contributions last year, according to Kiki Gbeho, head of the UN's office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs.The U.K.'s suspension was largely because of reports of missing food shipments, while the U.S. wanted assurances that supplies weren't being diverted to al Shabaab and other militant groups.
Mr. Bowden of the U.N. said al Shabaab has asked local U.N. staff to pay fees in regions they control, but said, "I don't think there's anything that would constitute diversion," of the humanitarian assistance.
Al Shabaab has been blamed for a raft of suicide bombings and other attacks targeting Somali officials. The group this month confirmed it was cooperating with al Qaeda insurgents in the region, as U.S. and Somali officials had suspected.While the Somali government offensive isn't likely to dislodge al Shabaab, some analysts say it might weaken the group enough to encourage defections from top commanders and raise tensions between different factions, which have feuded in the past. Analysts say a rift has also emerged between foreign fighters who want to link Somalia to al Qaeda's global jihad andSomali militants whose goals are largely domestic—to establish an Islamic state in Somalia.So far, though, the government has failed to exploit that division, said Rashid Abdi, a Somali analyst in Nairobi for the International Crisis Group, an independent think-tank. "Despite the rhetoric, there isn't a concrete reconciliation or engagement strategy," Mr. Abdi said. "Everybody is just digging in for a big fight.FEBRUARY 17, 2010, 12:31 P.M. ET
WSJ.com - Somalia's Al Shabaab to Ally With Al Qaeda http://on.wsj.com/9AMqKu
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