International community is very disappointed with the current political situation of Somalia. In Djibouti during UN-sponsored peace process where the current TFG was formed, International community expected the president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to secure the safety of Mogadishu and its surroundings first. They assumed that since he was a member of the insurgent group fighting in Mogadishu, he would be able to extend a hand to them and encourage others to join his forces in order to form a permanent government.
The organizers of the Djibouti conference also based their expectation for the fact that Sheikh Sharif was an ex-chairman of the Islamic Court Union (ICU), which ran the capital city for six months during the second half of 2006 before they were ousted by the ex-TFG troops backed by Ethiopian army. During this period, Georg-Sebastian Holzer, an analyst and free-lance journalist concluded that “Mogadishu enjoyed unprecedented stability and peace, for which Sharif Ahmed is still credited”.
However, immediately after relocation of his government from Djibouti to Mogadishu, the president failed to secure the capital Mogadishu, not to mention its surroundings. Al Shabab, a militant group of the ICU and another radical group of Asmara faction led by Hassan Dahir Aweys opposed the Djibouti peace process openly. In addition, more government troops trained by African Union defected to the Al Shabab militia.
As a result the insurgents gained ground to the point where NY Times reported on July 23, 2010 that “the Insurgents are now 300 yards — a rifle shot away — from the presidential palace.” Another NY Times reporter added that “Just a few hundred yards beyond Villa Somalia’s chipped plaster walls are Shabab fighters with scarves over their faces and sniper rifles who used to be allied with Sheik Sharif and are now trying to kill him.”
Instead of securing peace in the capital city and advancing the peace process as it was the plan, the president focused on how he would remain in the presidency of the current TFG and beyond. He immediately worked a plan to oust the ex-speaker of the parlament, Aden Madobe and replaced him with his long time best friend and advisor, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden. They – the president and the speaker - then decided to oust the ex-prime minster, Omar Abdirashid in order to select someone who will go along with their plan.
Now, the International community is looking for a way to minimize the damages. They got tired of repeated change of the government’s top leadership and the lack of progress for the last two years. As result, they are pursuing two different options simultaneously. One option is the State department’s dual track approach to Somalia. In this approach, the United State of America will no longer focus its previous single track approach of supporting TFG to bring stability in Somalia, a method which did not work for the last 18 months. Instead, they will pursue a dual track approach to Somalia where international community will work with local governments mainly Somaliland and Puntland from the north of Somalia as well as any other administration in order to end the 20 years armed conflict.
The other option is holding another peace process conference in order to include all stakeholders and broaden political base. In an interview conducted by a Somali Journalist, Ahmed Gure, UN Secretary-General’s top representative for Somalia, Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, said “If we are serious about really moving this process forward, the only ways to heal this is to transcend this from a transitional to something permanent. So we shall have another gathering that will determine the nature of the upcoming government". He added that "I don’t know when this can be done but we must do it in this period”, meaning before expiration of the current TFG term.
Analysts and observers are predicting that anticipated permanent government will have limited number of parliamentarian much less than the current 550 members and the top leadership will definitely be replaced.
The president and the speaker of the parliament are now trying to blame each other. Each one is trying to be part of the anticipated government. They also realize that the international community is disappointed with their performance. During the approval of the Prime Minister, Each one accused the other for not following the law even though what they were fighting about was trivial. It was whether the voting of confidence for the PM should be on a secret ballot basis or not. Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, who was responding to a question on the postponement of the approval of the prime minister, said “the fact that the two leaders should really hold the whole world in suspense over a method of voting is something which was beyond imagination”.
Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of . We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on . please email your article today to terrorfreesomalia@gmail.com
Abdirahman Warsame is the Executive Director of the Terror Free Somalia Foundation.a national grassroots organization that opposes terrorism and supports democracy in Africa. regular contributor American Thinker http://www.americanthinker.com/abdirahman_warsame/ . .Pajamas Media and .other American conservative organization
Abdirahman Warsame is the Executive Director of the Terror Free Somalia Foundation.a national grassroots organization that opposes terrorism and supports democracy in Africa. regular contributor American Thinker http://www.americanthinker.com/abdirahman_warsame/ . .Pajamas Media and .other American conservative organization
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