Somalia: Preparing for Battle in Mogadishu and Beyond

With the cautious Western donor and military powers on the sidelines – with a foot gingerly pressed on the playing field – the stand-off between the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its armed opposition, mainly composed of the transnationalist Islamist Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen or Youth Mujahideen Movement (Y.M.M.), and the nationalist Islamist Hizbul Islam (H.I.), has persisted in Mogadishu through mid-August. Armed clashes have continued, but there has been no perceptible change in the balance of power, in which the opposition surrounds the territory protected by AMISOM that consists of key political and transportation infra-structure; but is unable to break through its armor. Meanwhile Somalia’s internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.), which AMISOM is charged with defending from attack, has become a “ghost government,” as Somali political intellectual Mohamud Uloso calls it. The stand-off covers the moves being made by both sides to prepare for major battle, as closed sources in the Horn of Africa and Arabian Peninsula have reported.
Closed-Source Assessments
The first source reports on the strategy of the armed opposition, agreeing with the public statement by the Y.M.M. that it would replicate its tactics against the 2007-2008 Ethiopian occupation of drawing the enemy into armed responses that alienate the population and disturb domestic opinion. The armed opposition, says the source, plans a six-month war of attrition in which it picks off AMISOM forces on a regular basis. The opposition believes that such a strategy would work to make domestic support for AMISOM beyond repair in states that contribute to the force – Uganda and Burundi. Meanwhile, says the source, AMISOM is immobilized, waiting for T.F.G. forces to take the initiative, which is an indulgence in fantasy. ..more..http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Preparing_for_Battle_in_Mogadishu_and_Beyond.shtml