Sunday, February 24, 2013

The Kenya tricky governance challenge in Kismayu. Kenya and Ethiopia Challenging In Jubba Regions.

Somali army chief press conference in port kismayu
“He who controls Kismayu controls southern Somalia”, so goes a political maxim popular with the Somali clans in the Jubba Valley.

Objectively understood, the saying simply encapsulates a truism — the huge economic and political significance attached to the southern Somali port town.

Subjectively, it betrays the zero-sum game mindset that has disfigured politics in Somalia and is a key driver of the conflict. And it is this problematic issue which the allied forces and their policy makers need to address.

Since 1991, the idea of Kismayu as a space for contest, extraction and exclusion — or to use a Kenyanism, for one clan or group of clans to “eat” — has been the geostrategic calculus that has animated the bitter struggle over its control.
It is also the primary trigger of the numerous inter-factional and clan wars that have claimed tens of thousands of lives.

No other Somali city has been as contested and haggled over as Kismayu. And it is perhaps not too difficult to see why this tiny seaport, inhabited by some 200,000 people, is so intensely coveted.
The city has the busiest and most lucrative port in south-central Somalia — a veritable goldmine for any faction that controls it. It is estimated that the port — even when functioning at current capacity — can generate over $100 million dollars a year in revenue.

As the chief town of the fertile Jubba Valley — Somalia’s agricultural heartland — Kismayu port has historically been the most accessible and cheapest gateway for exporting agricultural produce such as bananas and tomatoes, besides livestock exports (to the gulf).

Of course, there is no meaningful agriculture to speak of in the Jubba Valley today and under Al-Shabaab, the port has morphed into a notorious hub of the “grey economy” — a major conduit for the export and import of illicit goods and commodities, principally charcoal and sugar.

But no one can discount the enormous potential of Kismayu in helping revive Somalia’s modest agricultural economy. However, the town’s economic importance as well as its heterogeneous and complex clan demographics has made it a notoriously difficult place to govern.

None of the bewildering array of factions – starting with the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM) to the Jubba Valley Alliance (JVA) — managed to govern the city for any appreciable length of time.

It was only Al-Shabaab that did manage to break the “governance jinx” and achieve regime longevity, maintaining uninterrupted functional control of city since late 2006.

And there are several reasons Al-Shabaab succeeded where others failed. First, it was the best armed, relatively less fractious and organised of all armed formations in 2006. The power to out-coerce the rest allowed it to stamp its authority and achieve dominance.

Second, and as odd as it may sound, it demonstrated it was a better steward of the port than previous groups — quickly establishing a workable and broadly acceptable formula to distribute the port revenues to the clans.

Its functionaries were less corrupt. This allowed it to establish some form of credibility and legitimacy and allowed it to buy consent. This historical context is important in better analysing the events of Yesterday and the implications of Kismayu’s fall.

And a number of issues flow from such an understanding:

• the inhabitants of the city have been made by circumstances to be cautious pragmatists, distrustful of political factions, but not always hostile. They are tough political customers and are bound to care more about those that deliver the goods;
• a mechanism to equitably share power and key resources, such as the port, is the key to preventing a governance crisis.
Many people believe that the challenges in the Jubba regions is among the local clans, but its quite different; Kenya and Ethiopia are challenging each other on the issue of Kismayo or rather Jubba regions. The most important thing is that Ethiopia wants to use the seaport of Kismayo, and it fears Kenyan-backed Azania administration which is rumored to have close ties with Ethiopian opposition front, ONLF..

KDF and Kenyan govt is the only in the African countries who support a clan militia onlf, and create vendetta between Marehan & Ogaden clans.  least 11 dead in Kismayo clashes Reflects historical, ongoing tensions between Ogaden and Marehan in port city

Rahm Warsame.  Follow me on Twitter  @terrorfreesomal

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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

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