War of Folly in SSC

update on Somalia: Threat of Clan Politics and Colonial Demarcations

For  Somaliland, the war in SSC is not only unnecessary and costly but is also  counterproductive. This war is also very destructive for the people of SSC. And  like the previous wars in Somalia, the end result is predictable: More loss of  life, destruction of property, and further political fragmentation of the  Somalis.

In  the 20 years of claim to independence, Somaliland has achieved very little in  development. Any visitor to Hargeisa immediately notices the debilitated  conditions of its roads. Public services, such as education and health care,  are almost nonexistent. If a school is needed to be built in a certain  community, the application is submitted to a foreign aid agency, instead of the  Somaliland Education Ministry. Anyone in Somaliland who needs a routine medical  diagnosis must travel Addis Ababa, Djibouti or some other foreign city. The  Finance Minister of Somaliland and other dignitaries are among those who have  recently made such a trip. More than 50% of the workforce in Somaliland is  unemployed. The majority of the residents in Hargeisa cannot get running water  in their homes, and those who do, have to wait days for their turn. The taxes  at the port of Berbera are the highest among the Somali ports. As a result,  most of the merchants in Somaliland import goods through the neighbouring port  of Bosaso. This is reason that once bustling city of Berbera has become a ghost  town.   Despite these and many other  challenges faced by the population under the Somaliland administration, the  politicians are eager to spend Somaliland's meager resources on a war of  attrition in the SSC. According to a minister in the current Somaliland  administration, close to 70% of Somaliland's budget is allocated for security.  Presumably, the larger chunk of the security budget is spent on men and armour  to maintain garrisons in SSC. This is pure folly.

The  argument put forward to justify this folly is that bringing SSC under the  Somaliland administration will strengthen Somaliland's quest for international  recognition. Given the recently Somali history, this is madness. The regime of  Siad Barre had far more firepower and resources than Somaliland. Yet it failed  to put down the insurgency that led to its fall. The error that Siad Barre made  was that he tried to solve a political challenge by a military means.  Somaliland is today committing a similar mistake.

The  people in SSC regions do not share the grievances that are the basis for the  secessionist ideology in Somaliland and they are as difficulty to be subjugated  into submission as were those in Hargeisa and Burao in the late 1980s. Somalis  don't like to be ruled by people and regimes they don't like. Therefore,  Somaliland's military campaign in SSC is in effect counterproductive. It will  harden the resolve of those who already oppose Somaliland. Furthermore, the  longer the conflict drags on the more likely that the minority in SSC who  currently support Somaliland will be driven into the opposition camp.  As a consequence, the military campaign in SSC  will achieve nothing other than destruction.

Resolution  of this conflict is good for both Somaliland and SSC. It will allow Somaliland  to spend more of its meager resources on such things as digging more wells to  supply water for residents of its capital. And it is good for the people of  SSC. The SSC regions are among the least developed of the regions of the former  Somali Republic. With this conflict over, the people there can start spending  their resources on development. A negotiated, peaceful settlement, if pursued,  will lead to the best outcome for both parties.

How  can a negotiated settlement be reached? There are three possible choices: 1)  Somaliland persuades the people of SSC to join it without change of its current  orientation; 2) Somaliland and SSC part ways; 3) Somaliland changes course and  pursues establishment of inclusive non-secessionist Northern administration.  These all seem hard choices given the prevailing mindset of the politicians,  but the alternative is more bloodshed, suffering, and hatred between the  brotherly peoples. This must not be allowed to go on.

Dr. Mohamed Musa
        E-Mail:mbeddel@yahoo.ca

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