The Africa Confidential Interview

AC interviewed Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on 3 May 2009 in Addis Ababa ,
AC: What do you think of the return of Sheikh Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys’ to Mogadishu? Do you think that Eritrean involvement could be damaging to a fragile situation in Somalia?
Meles: I think that it is a reflection of desperation and a desire to destabilise a fragile government. For me, it is a sign of desperation for two reasons. Firstly, I think that Dahir Aweys and his team are beginning to feel that they are losing the game in Mogadishu among the Islamists. There are moderate elements of the Islamic movement that are more and more disassociating themselves from his hard-line group and they appear to be eager to stem the tide in that sense. Secondly, the presence of Dahir Aweys in Asmara did nothing to improve the standing of Eritrea in the international community and it appears that they wanted to be relieved of his presence in Asmara as soon as possible. So that, I think, is indicative of desperation as part of the equation. At the same time, I think that Dahir Aweys and his team might think that all is notlost in Somalia and if they strike in time and strike hard, they could stabilise the situation. So it is both expectation and frustration that has pushed them to go to Mogadishu. Potentially, they could destabilise the government, both from Asmara and from Mogadishu. But I believe that some of the fundamental political changes that have occurred over the past three years in terms of division between the Islamic movement as a whole and more moderates drifting their position. I think that is unlikely to change because of Dahir Aweys’s position in Mogadishu.
AC: Do you think there is any chance that his presence is an attempt to reunite the ARS? [Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia].
Meles: Well that cannot be ruled out though I think it is unlikely.
AC: Do you think that the Brussels meeting was a step in the right direction for Somalia?Meles: I am not privy to the details but from what I heard from the media, substantial amounts of money have been promised and a substantial part of it is to finance Amisom [African Union Mission in Somalia]. I don’t know how much of it is going to be given to the Somali government. There have been two problems with regard to this in the past. Firstly, there was not enough money to support the government, lots of promises but very little delivery. Secondly, whatever money was being delivered was being delivered by third-party organisations: NGOs, international organisations. This continued to exacerbate the weakness of the government because whatever assistance was coming was not being channelled through government institutions and was weakening them. So I hope, whatever the decision was in Brussels, it will address those problems and the money involved is substantial enough to make a difference. The key issue will be whether the promises are kept and, assuming that they are, whether they will be put through proper channels.
AC: In your opinion, is Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed [Somalia’s new President] able to succeed? Do you look forward to a positive outcome in Somalia?
Meles: I look forward to a positive outcome but not because of particular like or dislike for any particular individual. I think that the trends in Somalia are moving in the right direction. I think that the current president is part of that positive trend and I think that he needs and deserves support. But I believe that this is not about individuals but about general trends within the society in Somalia.the whole interview”.http://www.africa-confidential.com/interview-with-meles-zenawi