Thursday, July 22, 2010

Why We Should Pull Out of Somalia

opinion

Kampala — Since Uganda was bombed on 7/11, Al-Shabaab "terrorist" group in Somali claimed responsibility. There has been a lot of tough talk in Kampala. President Yoweri Museveni has promised to hit back at Al-Shabaab by increasing our troops in that country. Many Ugandans support the government in its posturing for a "surge."Yet the surge will increase rather than reduce the problem of the fragmentation of the state in Somalia. It will also increase the financial and human cost on the state of Uganda. No amount of UPDF presence in Somalia will bring peace to that country. Only Somalis can. Uganda's troops can only assist in peace-building if there are strong internal forces with a strong vested interest in peace. Somalia needs a warlord able to mobilise resources and build a military capability to take effective control of the entire country.The crisis of the state in Somalia, though initially created by internal factors, has been worsened by international interference in its domestic politics. Indeed, it is part of the wider African dilemma. Although our problems and the demands for a solution are locally generated, the solution is never informed by the factors that gave birth to the crisis. Always, it is drawn from a textbook theory based on a context of other nations.
It is this attempt to impose outside solutions on Africa's internal problems that has bedeviled our continent. In the case of Somalia, the biggest threat to the evolution of an effective state has been the United States. US involvement in Somalia began with the 1991 intervention that was largely a humanitarian gesture.However, when America shifted its mandate from humanitarian intervention to peace enforcement, it got entangled in a war with Mohammed Aideed. This led to the death of 18 Americans in the famous "black hawk down" battle in Mogadishu that caused a US withdrawal. Had America allowed Aideed, who had the best chance of capturing the whole country militarily, to take control of Somalia, it is highly likely that a more stable and effective state would have emerged in that country.The American position was reinforced by the international humanitarian groups and their ill-informed and misguided African chorus singers. They looked at that country's problem from a purely humanitarian perspective and missed the vital importance of effective military control of Somalia as the only foundation for a stable future. Instead, they supported the ascendance to power of civilian groups claiming to be democratic but which were opportunistic and incapable of holding the country together.harbour a fundamental disagreement with democracy and human rights groups in Africa. Democracy exists in stable and effective states, not in anarchy. Yet we are continuously told that only a democratic order built around a consensus would bring a stable peace in Somalia. It is an obvious fallacy to argue that liberal democracy gives birth to liberal democracy. What Somalia needs is a military strongman with the organisational ability to marshal resources and bribe, coerce and cajole other military and civilian groups together as Yoweri Museveni did in Uganda in 1986.The result of this foreign interference with a naïve notion of democracy has been to stifle the evolution of a militarily strong organisation that could establish order in the country. This state of affairs favoured weak and incompetent warlords who now began to control small pockets of the country from whence they could rip a small fortune. However, nothing short of death can stop human initiative. In the mid 2000s, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) grew and spread rapidly, establishing order over large parts of the country. It organised around a unifying ideology of Islam and began implementing Sharia law.However, post 9/11 America was scared of anything Islamic and thus saw the ICU as an enemy. It financed Ethiopia to dislodge them from power. From the ashes of their defeat emerged the Al-Shabaab with largely terrorist intentions rather than a desire to build a strong state. America should have worked with ICU to create a stable state in Somalia by using financial incentives to stop it from becoming an auxiliary to Al-Qaeda.America was unwilling to send in troops to hold the peace because it was not politically sellable. It subcontracted that role to Uganda and Burundi. Museveni, seeing an opportunity to be central to US geo-strategic interests in the region offered to send in troops. I am reluctant to believe that Museveni was driven by a desire for peace n Somalia. This is because it is Museveni who convinced me that such ill advised foreign military interventions, however well intentioned, tend to create more problems than they solve.

In 2002, Museveni even gave me a speech he delivered at the Victoria Summit in Zimbabwe in August 1998 about Uganda and Rwanda's role in the removal of Mobutu of Zaire. I was struck by how profound his insights on the subject were. He argued that external actors tend to distort local politics by creating artificial winners and artificial losers. Because the winner is supported by foreign forces, he lacks incentives to seek internal political integration - hoping to rely on foreign allies to consolidate his/her position domestically.
Therefore, failure of the evolution of an effective state in Somali, and the rise of Al-Shabaab, are more a byproduct of nature of international intervention than domestic warlord politics. It is also difficult to see the strategic gains for Uganda in this intervention. However, it is strategically important for Museveni. Ugandan troop presence in Somalia helps improve his standing in Washington DC, a factor that is vital for his domestic politics.

In fact, when he came to power, US President Barack Obama showed a cold attitude to Museveni; quietly despising him for clinging to power and presiding over a corrupt system. Now, with Ugandans paying with blood for American geo-strategic interests in this region, Museveni is indispensable to Obama's plans for this region. Because the gains from Somalia are personal to Museveni rather than national to Uganda, I think we should pull out our troops; not because we are afraid of Al-Shabaab, but because we are not doing Somalis any good.


Andrew M. Mwenda 25 July 2010

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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

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