Reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia, and Cairo
On streets and alleys whittled by gunfire, Col. Abdi Bashir Dhagol is arming for a new battle amid the fleeing families, bloodied markets and boy soldiers of Mogadishu.Somali troops, supported by U.S.-funded weapons and training, are preparing to retake the capital from Al Qaeda-backed militants in an offensive to shift the balance of power in the Horn of Africa. But like many plans in a country ravaged by years of conflict, success lives half a breath away from failure.
Even soldiers have doubts. Some Somali troops have sold their weapons and disappeared. Others, who were trained in neighboring countries, left their ranks after not receiving salaries. Dhagol said the number of deserters was small and that a joint Somali and African Union force of about 15,000 soldiers was ready to rout an estimated 5,000 fighters with the radical group Shabab and its allies.
"Most of the soldiers have concluded their training and are equipped with guns. What we are waiting for is the go-ahead from top officials," Dhagol said as dozens of soldiers, most earning about $100 a month, milled around. "It could be any time, maybe this afternoon."
The government of President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed controls only a swath of the capital. The pending offensive is supported by the U.S. and European governments to try to end a nearly 20-year-old civil war and to uproot Islamic extremism at a strategic crossroads of Africa and the Middle East. Although many analysts are skeptical, a victory in Mogadishu would give Ahmed a foothold to take control of the rest of the country.
"There's a lot of political rhetoric, but it seems far away from reality to think the government can capture Mogadishu," said Ali Sheikh Abdi, a Somali scholar. "This offensive will endanger the lives of many vulnerable civilians."
Tens of thousands of Somalis have fled the city in recent months. They have joined other families in makeshift camps on the outskirts; the United Nations estimates that 3.2 million Somalis, 40% of the population, need emergency humanitarian assistance. Many civilians feel targeted by both the government and the militants, especially after the frequent shelling of marketplaces and the recent bombing at a mosque that killed more than 30 people.
"Civilians in Mogadishu continue to bear the brunt of the fighting, which has long been characterized by indiscriminate attacks by all sides," states a recent report by Human Rights Watch. "Opposition fighters have unlawfully deployed in densely populated civilian neighborhoods and at times used civilians as 'shields' to fire mortars at."
The report blames Somali troops and African Union soldiers for launching "indiscriminate mortar attacks" on areas from which rebels had fired and then fled. Another challenge is freeing Shabab-controlled parts of the city from a harsh interpretation of Islamic law that includes public beheadings, amputations of thieves' arms and stoning women accused of adultery.
"I have no appetite for either the government or the rebels. The rebels stop the food aid from reaching our camps, and the government shells our residents," said Adar Mohamoud Sheikh, a mother of five whose husband was killed in fighting in 2008. "Neither the government nor the rebels know what our lives are like. We are eating sometimes only once a day."
Violence, rumors and uncertainty escalate daily, and often little is clear after the smoke fades and the blood is hosed away. The twin bombings this month at the mosque in Bakara market appeared to have targeted senior Shabab leaders, including Fuad Shongole, who survived the blasts. The militant group blamed the "U.S. and other foreign hands," but some analysts suggested that the government or rival Islamic factions may have been involved.
The group, which has ties to Al Qaeda-linked organizations in Yemen and other countries, has turned Somalia into a haven for Islamic militancy. Its members are armed mainly with Kalashnikov rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars.
"We have prepared and are ready to counterattack any offensive from the apostate government," Sheik Hussein Muse Ali, a senior Shabab commander, told The Times in a phone interview. "The victory appears in front of us.… We will beat them, including the Americans if they become involved in the battle."
The critical test for Ahmed's government will be whether its soldiers, thousands of them trained in Uganda and Djibouti, buckle or become disillusioned during the offensive. Some of the dozens of soldiers who have deserted reportedly have joined the militants, military officials said.
"I am sure we will defeat these terrorists by any means," Dhagol said. "We have been planning our mission for a long time to dislodge from Mogadishu, particularly."
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