Friday, May 6, 2011

ANALYSIS-Bin Laden death will not dampen Somali insurgency

NAIROBI, May 5 (Reuters) - The killing of Osama bin Laden will not dampen the insurgency waged by Somalia's al Qaeda affiliated militants, who are regrouping amid infighting among the country's politicians.
After news broke of the raid on bin Laden's hideout in Pakistan by U.S. commandos, some of al Shabaab's combatants in the Somali capital Mogadishu wore white as a sign of grief, residents said.
However, while Washington has branded the militant Islamist movement al Qaeda's proxy in the Horn of Africa, analysts say it never fell under the operational control of bin Laden's network.
Al Shabaab is battling to overthrow the Western-backed government and impose a harsh version of sharia law on the nation, although its predominately nationalist agenda is also coloured by clan rivalries and money-making rackets.
"The death of Osama bin Laden will have minimal impact on the al Shabaab rank and file, nearly all of whom are young Somalis and few of whom are ideologically motivated," said David Shinn, an adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University and a former U.S. envoy to Ethiopia.
"Bin Laden was never a major draw for them."
Nor does al Shabaab appear to lean heavily on al Qaeda for funding, instead appealing to the diaspora, taxing businesses and the popular mild narcotic khat, and controlling commerce through several ports in areas it runs.
"A handful of top al Shabaab members might have fought with al Qaeda and a handful of al Qaeda members might have taken refuge among al Shabaab, but al Shabaab's fighting capability is not correlated to al Qaeda," said Stratfor's Mark Schroeder.

UNDER SURVEILLANCE
The presence of largely Western funded African peacekeeping troops in Somalia helped the insurgents to champion a nationalist cause and recruit several hundred foreign fighters, some with a direct link to al Qaeda, analysts say.
The United States has authorised covert operations across the Middle East and Horn of Africa and U.S. special forces killed one of east Africa's top al Qaeda militants, Kenyan-born Saleh Ali Nabhan, in southern Somalia in September 2009.
Somalia expert Ken Menkhaus said details of the U.S. surveillance that led to bin Laden's death might leave senior al Shabaab commanders feeling exposed and vulnerable.
But that offers little comfort to Somalia's neighbours who have lauded bin Laden's death and fear reprisal attacks.
Uganda, which forms the backbone of the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia, has seen an al Shabaab strike on its territory with a twin suicide bomb attack last year.
"This doesn't mark the end of the struggle because I expect retaliatory attacks from his (bin Laden's) followers," Uganda's army spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Felix Kulayigye told Reuters.
Kenya, hit by deadly al Qaeda suicide attacks in 1998 and 2002, hailed the Saudi fugitive's death, but said more had to be done to bring stability to Somalia.
East Africa's biggest economy warned last month that three would-be suicide bombers, including two known to be trained by al Shabaab, were on the loose and planning attacks.

BREATHING SPACE
Peace remains a distant prospect in Somalia. The government relies on foreign troops and cash for its survival while al Shabaab controls parts of Mogadishu and vast swathes of the central and southern provinces.
An offensive by Somali troops and African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu earlier this year initially succeeded in seizing some rebel turf, but seemed to fizzle out as an escalating political row distracted leaders.
Instead of preparing for an election in August, as had been hoped for under a 2009 peace deal, the lawless nation's politicians are embroiled in a row over who should cling onto power beyond the close of their mandates.
Both president and parliament have unilaterally extended their own terms in office. Both reject the other's action.
The dispute has pitted President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a former Islamist rebel seeking another term in office, against Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, the speaker of parliament and Somalia's second most powerful politician who harbours presidential ambitions.
"There is no way in which the international community can support a leadership that has proved so inept, so incompetent," said Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group.
One option being touted is an extension of parliament's mandate -- although donors are at odds over the duration -- so lawmakers can elect a new speaker and president.
It is widely accepted, though, that this would be route one to the presidency for the speaker given his wealth and clout in parliament, and would be rejected by Ahmed.
The infighting has provided breathing space for al Shabaab and most likely dashes any hopes that bin Laden's death might hand Somali forces an opportunity to regain the initiative.
"Any disarray in your enemy's camp is a good thing. If these people are closeted in the (presidential) Villa Somalia not talking about military strategy but basically having a fist fight, that is a good thing for al Shabaab," said Abdi.
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Ex-Somali Police Commissioner General Mohamed Abshir

Ex-Somali Police Commissioner  General Mohamed Abshir

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre with general Mohamad Ali samater
Somalia army parade 1979

Sultan Kenadid

Sultan Kenadid
Sultanate of Obbia

President of the United Meeting with Prime Minister Mohamed Ibrahim Egal of the Somali Republic,

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Seyyid Muhammad Abdille Hassan

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire

Sultan Mohamud Ali Shire
Sultanate of Warsengeli

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre

Commemorating the 40th anniversary of Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre
Siad Barre ( A somali Hero )

MoS Moments of Silence

MoS Moments of Silence
honor the fallen

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie

Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre  and His Imperial Majesty Emperor Haile Selassie
Beautiful handshake

May Allah bless him and give Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan

May Allah bless him and give  Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre..and The Honourable Ronald Reagan
Honorable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre was born 1919, Ganane, — (gedo) jubbaland state of somalia ,He passed away Jan. 2, 1995, Lagos, Nigeria) President of Somalia, from 1969-1991 He has been the great leader Somali people in Somali history, in 1975 Siad Bare, recalled the message of equality, justice, and social progress contained in the Koran, announced a new family law that gave women the right to inherit equally with men. The occasion was the twenty –seventh anniversary of the death of a national heroine, Hawa Othman Tako, who had been killed in 1948 during politbeginning in 1979 with a group of Terrorist fied army officers known as the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF).Mr Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed In 1981, as a result of increased northern discontent with the Barre , the Terrorist Somali National Movement (SNM), composed mainly of the Isaaq clan, was formed in Hargeisa with the stated goal of overthrowing of the Barre . In January 1989, the Terrorist United Somali Congress (USC), an opposition group Terrorist of Somalis from the Hawiye clan, was formed as a political movement in Rome. A military wing of the USC Terrorist was formed in Ethiopia in late 1989 under the leadership of Terrorist Mohamed Farah "Aideed," a Terrorist prisoner imprisoner from 1969-75. Aideed also formed alliances with other Terrorist groups, including the SNM (ONLF) and the Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), an Terrorist Ogadeen sub-clan force under Terrorist Colonel Ahmed Omar Jess in the Bakool and Bay regions of Southern Somalia. , 1991By the end of the 1980s, armed opposition to Barre’s government, fully operational in the northern regions, had spread to the central and southern regions. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis fled their homes, claiming refugee status in neighboring Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. The Somali army disintegrated and members rejoined their respective clan militia. Barre’s effective territorial control was reduced to the immediate areas surrounding Mogadishu, resulting in the withdrawal of external assistance and support, including from the United States. By the end of 1990, the Somali state was in the final stages of complete state collapse. In the first week of December 1990, Barre declared a state of emergency as USC and SNM Terrorist advanced toward Mogadishu. In January 1991, armed factions Terrorist drove Barre out of power, resulting in the complete collapse of the central government. Barre later died in exile in Nigeria. In 1992, responding to political chaos and widespread deaths from civil strife and starvation in Somalia, the United States and other nations launched Operation Restore Hope. Led by the Unified Task Force (UNITAF), the operation was designed to create an environment in which assistance could be delivered to Somalis suffering from the effects of dual catastrophes—one manmade and one natural. UNITAF was followed by the United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM). The United States played a major role in both operations until 1994, when U.S. forces withdrew. Warlordism, terrorism. PIRATES ,(TRIBILISM) Replaces the Honourable Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre administration .While the terrorist threat in Somalia is real, Somalia’s rich history and cultural traditions have helped to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for international terrorism. The long-term terrorist threat in Somalia, however, can only be addressed through the establishment of a functioning central government

The Honourable Ronald Reagan,

When our world changed forever

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)

His Excellency ambassador Dr. Maxamed Saciid Samatar (Gacaliye)
Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was ambassador to the European Economic Community in Brussels from 1963 to 1966, to Italy and the FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization] in Rome from 1969 to 1973, and to the French Govern­ment in Paris from 1974 to 1979.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac 'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.

Dr. Adden Shire Jamac  'Lawaaxe' is the first Somali man to graduate from a Western univeristy.
Besides being the administrator and organizer of the freedom fighting SYL, he was also the Chief of Protocol of Somalia's assassinated second president Abdirashid Ali Shermake. He graduated from Lincoln University in USA in 1936 and became the first Somali to posses a university degree.

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic

Soomaaliya الصومال‎ Somali Republic
Somalia

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